NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	105		Excitement	7.2 [373]		MVP	Vin Baker (BOS): +8.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	98		Comeback	1.2 [459]		LVP	Ricky Davis (CLE): -26.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	13	55%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Tony Battie	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kedrick Brown	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	59%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.04,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	25	60%	0.13	4	-0.12	18	89%	0.07
Kendrick Perkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.01	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Jumaine Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Mark Blount	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.00	18	65%	0.13	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.05	-0.01	20	64%	0.09	2	-0.06	18	89%	0.07
Jason Kapono	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Bremer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	15	50%	0.04	3	-0.14	4	75%	-0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	11	35%	-0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.21	-0.06	-0.01	5	23%	-0.09	7	-0.17	3	33%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	32.0	14.8	26.1	2.5	33.5	135.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +24.9%

BOS +6.0%

CLE -17.2%

BOS +36.5%

CLE -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	15.9	15.3	15.7	114.1	105.4	100.5
season	14.4	15.7		99.5	99.8
opponent	15.5	15.9		102.3	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.7	15.8	17.7	16.7	15.9
CLE	13.4	16.2	17.4	14.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	79	79	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.20	14	-7	21	16.5	11.8	4.76	15.2	16.0	-0.85
Eric Williams	51	52	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	1	5	15.3	16.6	-1.35	15.7	14.8	0.89
Paul Pierce	86	87	0.42	0.07	0.35	0.31	4	3	1	15.7	18.8	-3.18	14.9	21.3	-6.47
Jiri Welsch	50	50	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	3	1	16.2	15.4	0.84	13.8	17.0	-3.16
Tony Battie	49	49	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.24	0	7	-7	15.4	16.3	-0.92	16.3	14.2	2.08
Vin Baker	53	54	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	3	1	16.8	14.6	2.11	14.6	16.2	-1.59
Mark Blount	39	39	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	1	5	15.6	16.0	-0.38	14.7	15.7	-1.06
Kendrick Perkins	1	1	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.03	3	4	-1	21.0	15.8	5.20	14.0	15.3	-1.29
Kedrick Brown	33	34	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	9	-11	15.5	16.1	-0.54	17.2	14.2	3.04
Marcus Banks	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	8	-9	12.3	16.2	-3.87	20.6	14.8	5.85
Jumaine Jones	12	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.06	-3	10	-13	15.0	16.0	-0.99	15.6	15.2	0.35

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	5	5	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-4	1	15.6	15.3	0.34	9.4	16.2	-6.83
Chris Mihm	13	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.04	-2	-5	3	16.6	15.1	1.55	16.6	15.7	0.84
J.R. Bremer	5	4	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-2	-3	14.6	15.3	-0.72	13.0	16.0	-2.99
Darius Miles	61	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.32	5	-12	17	15.5	14.8	0.76	15.9	15.8	0.12
Michael Stewart	11	10	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	3	-13	18.7	14.8	3.91	14.0	16.1	-2.09
Ricky Davis	58	57	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.13	-4	-3	-1	15.8	14.3	1.50	16.4	15.0	1.39
Carlos Boozer	82	82	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.37	4	-11	15	14.8	18.7	-3.91	16.1	14.0	2.09
Kevin Ollie	36	35	-0.28	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-5	3	15.1	15.4	-0.23	15.6	16.0	-0.37
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	43	42	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	5	-17	14.3	16.1	-1.77	15.1	16.5	-1.36
Ira Newble	63	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-3	-1	14.9	16.0	-1.06	16.3	14.9	1.46
LeBron James	88	88	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-5	3	15.3	14.6	0.72	16.0	13.0	2.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 102, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.21,0.1,0.04,0	93.5%
DAL 113, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.16,0	93.1%
SAS 98, CHA 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.21,0.23,0.21,0.35,0.27,0.38,0.12,0.02,0.02,0	92.9%