NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	93		Excitement	6.6 [498]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +20.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	89		Comeback	1.1 [290]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -13.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.2	0.07	0.14	0.01	24	55%	0.27	2	-0.06	5	60%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	9	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	0.00	22	50%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	6	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	53%	0.04	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Devean George	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Jason Kidd	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	7	47%	0.04	2	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Antoine Wright	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.01	0.00	16	62%	0.14	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	6	53%	0.09	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,-0.01,0.11,0.02,0.08	0.08	0.12	-0.01	0.03	13	71%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09	-0.09	0.03	-0.11	0.01	12	54%	0.03	1	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	20	46%	-0.00	4	-0.13	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.6	28.2	14.8	26.2	2.5	36.3	133.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +38.2%

POR -9.1%

DAL +9.0%

DAL +10.5%

DAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	16.9	16.4	15.5	105.7	104.7	106.4
season	15.6	16.7		108.9	111.0
opponent	16.0	15.4		105.8	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.0	16.2	18.6	16.8	16.9
POR	16.8	18.9	15.7	14.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	48	46	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-3	10	16.0	17.9	-1.92	16.2	16.7	-0.52
Jason Terry	64	64	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.35	4	0	4	16.1	18.9	-2.81	16.1	17.4	-1.29
Jason Kidd	69	66	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.39	1	3	-2	16.4	18.4	-1.97	16.2	17.1	-0.83
Erick Dampier	55	53	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.19	2	2	0	17.6	15.7	1.88	17.3	14.9	2.41
Jose Juan Barea	54	50	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	-3	10	18.0	15.1	2.96	17.4	15.1	2.30
Dirk Nowitzki	73	71	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.26	-1	5	-6	16.9	16.7	0.25	15.9	19.1	-3.18
Antoine Wright	56	53	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.37	-6	10	-16	17.1	16.5	0.64	15.9	17.2	-1.24
Devean George	21	22	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	-2	8	17.0	16.8	0.23	16.9	16.3	0.61

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nicolas Batum	25	27	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-7	10	16.9	16.2	0.72	18.3	16.2	2.05
Sergio Rodriguez	21	23	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.06	-1	-3	2	17.3	16.1	1.22	17.3	16.7	0.58
Jerryd Bayless	14	15	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	3	-10	18.8	15.9	2.84	15.7	17.1	-1.38
Channing Frye	32	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	4	-12	14.5	17.5	-3.02	15.0	17.9	-2.84
LaMarcus Aldridge	79	83	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-7	10	16.2	19.7	-3.50	16.9	17.0	-0.13
Steve Blake	63	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-7	10	15.8	18.0	-2.20	17.2	16.0	1.15
Joel Przybilla	55	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-1	-2	17.8	13.9	3.93	18.2	14.5	3.69
Brandon Roy	75	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	-2	0	16.4	16.6	-0.21	16.7	18.1	-1.38
Travis Outlaw	61	62	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	4	-12	16.0	17.4	-1.40	16.0	19.0	-3.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.27,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 105, MIL 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.36,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.22,0.29,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.17,0.23,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.15,0.02,0	93.2%
UTA 96, SEA 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.02,0,0,0	93.0%
DAL 113, HOU 107	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.27,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.16,0.23,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.16,0	92.8%