NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	104		Excitement	7.5 [330]		MVP	Moochie Norris (HOU): +19.4%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	1.2 [383]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -15.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Moochie Norris	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.19	0.04	0.15	-0.00	4	70%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cuttino Mobley	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	20	52%	0.13	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terence Morris	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0.04	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.01	11	73%	0.13	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Kelvin Cato	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	9	58%	0.02	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.07
Oscar Torres	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	9	40%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Steve Francis	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,0.02,-0.06,-0.06	-0.13	0.05	-0.02	20	49%	0.05	5	-0.11	13	77%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	3	83%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.06	0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.00	27	57%	0.06	0	0.00	13	77%	0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.05	-0.01	11	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	70%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	17	54%	-0.04	4	-0.12	12	75%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	28.4	16.4	28.3	2.4	41.4	142.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +57.3%

BOS -9.0%

HOU +1.2%

BOS -6.5%

HOU +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	BOS	NBA	HOU	BOS	NBA
this game	16.9	13.6	15.6	109.5	107.4	102.3
season	16.8	15.0		100.9	100.9
opponent	15.7	15.2		98.8	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.1	17.2	15.0	18.4	16.9
BOS	12.2	15.5	14.3	12.3	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Francis	89	88	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.38	7	-4	11	16.8	19.2	-2.41	13.3	16.7	-3.33
Cuttino Mobley	82	81	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-3	9	16.8	17.6	-0.82	13.6	13.5	0.11
Eddie Griffin	85	84	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.42	4	-1	5	16.8	18.2	-1.45	13.6	13.4	0.17
Kelvin Cato	80	78	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.37	1	2	-1	16.9	16.9	0.05	13.6	13.3	0.29
Kenny Thomas	50	50	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	-1	5	17.1	16.7	0.45	13.7	13.4	0.23
Moochie Norris	29	30	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.20	-1	4	-5	17.4	16.7	0.78	14.0	13.3	0.71
Terence Morris	52	52	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.20	-5	8	-13	17.2	16.6	0.63	13.5	13.6	-0.03
Oscar Torres	8	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	4	-5	16.1	17.0	-0.85	12.6	13.6	-1.06

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	38	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-7	11	13.0	13.9	-0.88	16.7	17.0	-0.32
Tony Battie	54	53	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.30	5	-8	13	13.4	13.7	-0.30	17.4	16.3	1.03
Eric Williams	24	25	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	5	-13	15.2	13.0	2.28	16.1	17.2	-1.07
Kenny Anderson	64	66	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.18	-1	-2	1	13.8	12.9	0.91	17.1	16.6	0.51
Vitaly Potapenko	32	35	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	1	-5	13.3	13.7	-0.41	16.1	17.4	-1.34
Paul Pierce	88	88	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.40	4	-7	11	13.3	17.0	-3.68	16.8	18.0	-1.18
Antoine Walker	89	89	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-4	5	13.5	13.8	-0.26	17.0	15.8	1.14
Walter McCarty	22	23	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.25	-8	5	-13	13.0	13.7	-0.72	17.5	16.7	0.76
Erick Strickland	59	58	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.32	-8	5	-13	13.7	13.3	0.47	17.1	16.6	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.09,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 85, WAS 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.05,0	92.9%
CLE 103, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.27,0.37,0.46,0.45,0.33,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	92.9%
MIL 106, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0	92.8%