NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	100		Excitement	7.1 [437]		MVP	Mario Chalmers (MEM): +16.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	92		Comeback	2.0 [633]		LVP	Evan Turner (POR): -14.9%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Noah Vonleh	0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.07	-0.02	8	55%	0.12	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
CJ McCollum	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	17	62%	0.18	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.04
Shabazz Napier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	13	50%	0.09	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	4	100%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	15	52%	0.05	2	-0.06	10	100%	0.06
Ed Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.12	0.06	-0.00	13	32%	0.02	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.03
Evan Turner	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	6	0%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.04	0.02	12	68%	0.17	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	9	42%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04	0.04	0.10	-0.05	0.01	15	56%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deyonta Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	1	75%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
James Ennis III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.02	10	48%	-0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Jarell Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	20	43%	0.04	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.04
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.4	36.5	15.4	25.4	1.8	31.0	138.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +12.0%

POR +15.0%

POR +33.5%

MEM -18.5%

POR +8.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MEM	NBA	POR	MEM	NBA
this game	15.3	13.9	14.7	99.0	95.8	107.5
season	15.2	15.4		107.8	103.4
opponent	14.6	14.3		109.8	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.2	13.5	17.0	15.8	15.3
MEM	15.5	13.2	13.0	14.1	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shabazz Napier	59	54	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.21	13	-5	18	15.2	15.5	-0.35	13.5	14.4	-0.93
Jusuf Nurkic	65	63	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.48	0	8	-8	15.9	14.3	1.58	13.7	14.4	-0.74
Noah Vonleh	63	64	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.40	2	6	-4	15.6	14.9	0.69	13.8	14.2	-0.37
CJ McCollum	81	75	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.23	4	4	0	15.5	14.3	1.24	13.5	15.5	-2.07
Evan Turner	42	38	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.13	16	-8	24	15.1	15.4	-0.26	15.1	13.1	2.03
Damian Lillard	68	69	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.34	-1	9	-10	15.3	15.2	0.08	14.0	13.6	0.38
Pat Connaughton	12	10	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.10	7	1	6	14.3	15.4	-1.09	17.1	13.5	3.57
Ed Davis	36	31	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	4	0	15.0	15.4	-0.42	14.2	13.8	0.42
Meyers Leonard	35	32	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.16	6	2	4	14.4	15.8	-1.37	14.4	13.6	0.80
Maurice Harkless	44	44	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.12	-11	19	-30	15.1	15.4	-0.28	13.2	14.5	-1.34

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deyonta Davis	26	29	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-7	6	14.3	13.7	0.60	15.9	15.1	0.79
Andrew Harrison	7	9	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-4	0	14.1	13.9	0.26	10.8	15.7	-4.96
Mario Chalmers	67	67	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.29	5	-13	18	13.4	15.1	-1.67	15.5	14.9	0.58
James Ennis III	15	14	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	2	-12	15.2	13.7	1.53	15.2	15.3	-0.10
Jarell Martin	17	19	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.10	-11	3	-14	14.6	13.7	0.90	13.4	15.7	-2.38
Chandler Parsons	53	53	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-12	16	12.9	15.1	-2.19	15.2	15.5	-0.31
Ben McLemore	27	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	0	-8	15.8	13.2	2.66	16.9	14.6	2.32
Dillon Brooks	58	63	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.13	-4	-4	0	14.5	13.1	1.41	15.2	15.4	-0.20
JaMychal Green	69	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-11	14	13.5	14.9	-1.42	15.7	14.4	1.32
Tyreke Evans	62	67	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.11	-7	-1	-6	13.6	14.5	-0.92	15.1	15.7	-0.62
Marc Gasol	79	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	-1	-6	14.0	13.6	0.31	15.3	15.4	-0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.38,0.37,0.48,0.36,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.27,0.19,0.04,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 115, IND 111	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.22,0.35,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.12,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.04,0	93.8%
SAC 100, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.44,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.59,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.11,0.15,0.08,0	92.2%
NYK 114, ATL 107	0.5,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.24,0.13,0.07,0.03,0,0,0	91.3%