NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	8.6 [186]		MVP	Al Horford (BOS): +27.5%
Boston Celtics	95		Comeback	3.0 [295]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -50.8%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Miles	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.03	8	62%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.01	3	70%	0.13	1	-0.06	4	75%	0.04
Jonas Valanciunas	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	5	73%	0.10	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0.05	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.04	0.01	10	76%	0.13	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	89%	0.10	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Delon Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Fred VanVleet	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Jakob Poeltl	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	3	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.51	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.05,-0.02,0.05,-0.05,-0.51	-0.04	-0.45	0.01	22	46%	-0.37	3	-0.14	8	87%	0.05

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.33,0.33,0.27	0.27	0.14	0.13	-0.00	9	91%	0.35	2	-0.08	5	80%	0.02
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	15	52%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.02	15	60%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.10	0.00	10	54%	-0.04	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	15	43%	0.08	2	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.15,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	7	42%	-0.01	3	-0.12	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.4	27.6	15.4	29.5	1.8	26.2	128.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +37.2%

TOR -23.1%

BOS +34.1%

TOR -8.6%

BOS +10.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	BOS	NBA	TOR	BOS	NBA
this game	14.2	16.9	14.7	103.3	101.1	107.5
season	14.6	15.1		112.7	106.4
opponent	14.7	14.8		103.5	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.8	13.0	15.6	14.6	14.2
BOS	14.4	19.8	16.3	17.3	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lucas Nogueira	40	39	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.15	9	-10	19	12.7	15.4	-2.73	16.2	17.3	-1.12
Pascal Siakam	39	39	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.13	7	-8	15	13.4	14.8	-1.39	16.7	17.0	-0.33
Delon Wright	35	34	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-4	7	13.6	14.6	-1.03	17.8	16.3	1.51
CJ Miles	43	44	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.47	17	-18	35	12.6	15.7	-3.08	16.7	17.0	-0.21
Norman Powell	13	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	1	-3	15.2	14.1	1.17	15.2	17.2	-1.98
Jakob Poeltl	7	6	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	3	-7	18.6	13.9	4.70	15.7	16.9	-1.28
Jonas Valanciunas	32	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	5	-11	14.6	14.0	0.61	17.5	16.5	1.03
OG Anunoby	37	38	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	9	-19	15.9	13.1	2.75	18.5	15.7	2.75
DeMar DeRozan	66	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.32	-3	2	-5	14.6	13.2	1.37	16.3	18.4	-2.11
Fred VanVleet	31	32	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.59	2	-3	5	13.3	14.7	-1.48	17.7	16.5	1.20
Kyle Lowry	56	61	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	3	-7	14.6	13.6	1.03	16.4	17.7	-1.24
Serge Ibaka	56	58	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.37	-14	13	-27	15.1	12.8	2.37	16.7	17.1	-0.31

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	64	60	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.47	11	-10	21	16.6	17.5	-0.94	14.6	13.5	1.18
Jaylen Brown	64	61	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	-5	11	16.3	18.1	-1.77	14.5	13.7	0.79
Jayson Tatum	65	60	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.46	2	-1	3	17.7	15.0	2.69	14.4	13.9	0.50
Al Horford	64	62	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.39	4	-3	7	16.8	17.0	-0.20	14.9	12.9	2.01
Terry Rozier	55	54	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.41	-2	3	-5	17.1	16.5	0.64	13.9	14.8	-0.89
Aron Baynes	40	38	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.00	9	-8	17	16.6	17.0	-0.41	15.4	13.4	1.95
Shane Larkin	27	27	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	5	-9	17.1	16.8	0.35	12.8	14.8	-2.01
Marcus Morris	42	44	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	3	-5	16.1	17.5	-1.39	14.8	13.7	1.05
Daniel Theis	35	34	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	7	-13	17.2	16.7	0.49	13.1	14.9	-1.87
Semi Ojeleye	14	15	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.06	-13	14	-27	17.9	16.7	1.25	10.3	15.0	-4.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.49,0.36,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.75,0.7,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.64,0.77,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 100, BOS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.57,0.77,0.64,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.85,0.92,1	92.1%
TOR 81, MEM 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.68,0.59,0.7,0.78,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.85,1	92.0%
IND 90, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.96,1	91.9%