NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	107		Excitement	7.9 [285]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): +13.5%
Portland Trail Blazers	117		Comeback	1.4 [686]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -30.3%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.03	-0.01	11	77%	0.16	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	8	78%	0.14	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Sam Dekker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	12	54%	0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11	-0.00	-0.09	0.01	6	53%	0.03	2	-0.13	5	100%	0.03
Lou Williams	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.15,-0.21,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.09	-0.12	0.00	16	36%	-0.14	2	-0.07	7	57%	-0.03
James Harden	-0.30	0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.3,-0.3	-0.10	-0.19	0.01	30	45%	-0.04	6	-0.26	7	86%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.01	0.01	11	77%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	13	65%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.03	-0.00	10	62%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.17	-0.08	0.04	18	72%	0.19	3	-0.13	7	100%	0.04
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.00	-0.04	0.05	0.01	16	49%	0.10	4	-0.10	7	71%	-0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	15	37%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.5	32.5	17.4	24.1	2.8	30.0	135.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +30.5%

POR +7.9%

HOU -18.5%

POR +31.2%

HOU -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	POR	NBA	HOU	POR	NBA
this game	13.6	14.9	14.8	105.9	115.8	107.7
season	13.7	14.9		113.2	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.9		109.8	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.0	14.6	14.7	12.3	13.6
POR	14.1	16.0	14.7	14.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Gordon	75	76	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-5	0	14.0	12.7	1.27	15.3	13.6	1.65
Clint Capela	51	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-7	4	13.8	13.5	0.34	15.4	14.3	1.04
Lou Williams	61	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-14	18	13.4	13.9	-0.48	14.6	15.3	-0.74
Trevor Ariza	76	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-7	4	13.6	13.6	-0.01	14.9	14.7	0.21
James Harden	76	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.22	-3	-7	4	13.6	13.6	-0.01	14.9	14.7	0.21
Sam Dekker	46	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	0	-10	13.0	14.2	-1.16	13.9	15.6	-1.71
Nene	50	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	-3	-4	13.5	13.8	-0.34	14.3	15.4	-1.04
Patrick Beverley	70	68	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.05	-23	13	-36	13.9	13.1	0.77	15.2	14.2	0.95

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damian Lillard	80	80	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.19	12	-2	14	14.7	15.6	-0.87	13.7	13.5	0.14
Jusuf Nurkic	66	65	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.16	12	-2	14	14.8	14.9	-0.09	14.0	13.0	0.98
CJ McCollum	67	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	0	10	15.1	14.4	0.80	13.4	14.1	-0.63
Allen Crabbe	69	69	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	1	8	14.3	16.0	-1.68	13.2	14.6	-1.45
Maurice Harkless	65	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	3	4	15.4	13.9	1.46	14.0	12.9	1.16
Evan Turner	39	39	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	8	-6	15.1	14.7	0.40	13.4	13.8	-0.45
Al-Farouq Aminu	66	65	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.13	-2	12	-14	14.8	15.0	-0.18	13.7	13.5	0.16
Noah Vonleh	30	32	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	7	-4	14.9	14.9	0.07	14.1	13.4	0.72
Meyers Leonard	23	22	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	13	-16	14.7	14.9	-0.30	13.0	13.8	-0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.7,0.84,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 85, MIA 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.75,0.72,0.53,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.91,1	93.3%
CHA 99, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.9,0.84,1	93.2%
WAS 95, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.77,0.86,0.8,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.91,0.96,1	93.1%