NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	95		Excitement	7.1 [386]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (MIL): +18.0%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	1.5 [1109]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (WAS): -12.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.05,-0.01,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	15	56%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.05
Calvin Booth	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Felipe Lopez	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gerard King	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.00	20	54%	-0.02	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Tyrone Nesby	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	14	39%	-0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	0.00	15	39%	-0.03	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.04	-0.01	9	94%	0.23	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	1	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.04	0.00	13	72%	0.14	4	-0.14	6	67%	-0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.10	0.09	-0.01	17	46%	0.09	4	-0.10	7	86%	0.03
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.04	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	15	53%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	9	40%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.6	2.5	28.2	15.8	23.5	2.3	32.4	125.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +59.4%

WAS -4.8%

WAS -1.4%

WAS -4.6%

MIL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.9	15.5	101.1	104.2	100.9
season	15.2	14.9		98.6	105.9
opponent	15.8	15.2		102.3	105.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.7	19.1	15.0	14.2	15.6
MIL	14.7	15.1	13.2	16.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felipe Lopez	55	54	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	-3	2	16.1	15.0	1.03	14.7	15.0	-0.30
Calvin Booth	33	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-2	0	14.9	16.0	-1.15	14.0	15.3	-1.31
Tyrone Nesby	56	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-1	-2	15.0	16.6	-1.55	13.5	16.9	-3.36
Obinna Ekezie	28	28	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	5	-14	16.8	15.1	1.65	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Michael Smith	46	46	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-5	6	16.2	15.1	1.11	15.5	14.3	1.17
Gerard King	29	29	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-1	-2	17.6	14.8	2.78	17.0	13.9	3.09
Chris Whitney	82	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-5	6	14.7	22.2	-7.59	15.1	13.3	1.79
Juwan Howard	88	90	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.44	1	-5	6	15.0	24.7	-9.66	14.9	13.2	1.74
Richard Hamilton	53	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	1	-6	16.7	14.3	2.41	14.9	14.7	0.21

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	82	80	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.43	3	1	2	14.5	17.4	-2.93	15.4	17.0	-1.61
Ervin Johnson	50	49	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.34	4	0	4	15.8	13.8	2.08	16.1	15.1	0.99
Glenn Robinson	77	76	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.37	2	2	0	14.5	16.6	-2.10	15.1	17.8	-2.73
Lindsey Hunter	35	34	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	-5	14	15.8	14.3	1.50	16.4	15.2	1.23
Tim Thomas	81	80	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.39	-5	9	-14	14.9	14.4	0.58	15.2	17.8	-2.54
Sam Cassell	74	74	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	6	-8	14.7	15.4	-0.68	15.5	16.0	-0.47
Jason Caffey	34	35	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	-4	12	16.4	14.0	2.38	17.4	14.6	2.87
Scott Williams	42	42	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.10	1	3	-2	13.3	16.1	-2.85	15.2	15.9	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.77,0.86,0.8,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 99, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.9,0.84,1	93.6%
HOU 107, POR 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.7,0.84,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.67,0.99,1	93.1%
ORL 106, PHI 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.53,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.77,0.82,0.92,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.85,0.92,1	92.8%