NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	8.9 [160]		MVP	Jae Crowder (BOS): +22.9%
Boston Celtics	112		Comeback	4.4 [527]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -11.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.35,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2	0.12	0.07	-0.00	15	67%	0.26	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Willie Reed	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	87%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luke Babbitt	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.01	14	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.03
Wayne Ellington	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	17	49%	0.05	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.03
Rodney McGruder	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	6	29%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	10	41%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.05
Goran Dragic	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	14	46%	0.05	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.28,0.28,0.19,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.09	0.00	13	76%	0.30	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.04
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0,0.16,0.28,0.22	0.22	0.07	0.14	-0.02	18	67%	0.43	6	-0.20	9	89%	0.05
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.14	0.04	0.02	6	108%	0.19	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	7	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.06
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	6	44%	-0.01	1	-0.09	4	75%	-0.03
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	36%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.6	32.2	15.4	24.1	1.8	45.3	144.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +65.3%

BOS +1.3%

BOS +3.1%

MIA -13.5%

MIA -6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	13.8	14.8	110.2	114.3	107.7
season	15.4	14.7		106.7	110.1
opponent	14.9	14.5		108.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	15.0	18.6	14.0	15.6
BOS	13.2	13.3	14.1	14.8	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Reed	35	33	0.37	-0.87	1.24	0.05	11	-15	26	14.4	16.2	-1.87	16.0	12.7	3.34
Wayne Ellington	37	35	0.36	-0.86	1.21	0.12	8	-12	20	13.9	16.6	-2.61	15.3	13.0	2.24
James Johnson	59	60	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.39	8	-12	20	14.5	17.1	-2.59	14.4	12.8	1.63
Tyler Johnson	65	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.39	3	-7	10	14.8	17.1	-2.25	14.4	12.6	1.78
Rodney McGruder	47	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	1	-6	16.2	15.0	1.15	14.0	13.7	0.33
Luke Babbitt	39	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.00	-12	8	-20	17.1	14.5	2.59	12.8	14.4	-1.63
Goran Dragic	70	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-1	-2	15.9	14.8	1.10	13.3	15.0	-1.71
Hassan Whiteside	63	65	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.45	-13	9	-22	16.2	14.4	1.87	12.7	16.0	-3.34
Josh Richardson	75	75	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.37	-17	13	-30	16.4	13.0	3.36	13.0	16.6	-3.59

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	74	74	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.48	16	-12	28	13.0	16.4	-3.44	16.3	13.4	2.85
Isaiah Thomas	73	71	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.22	21	-17	38	13.0	16.1	-3.09	16.4	13.4	2.99
Amir Johnson	57	57	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.07	19	-15	34	12.6	15.5	-2.96	16.8	13.9	2.87
Avery Bradley	65	65	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	-2	8	12.7	16.0	-3.34	15.8	15.2	0.63
Marcus Smart	62	62	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.41	-3	7	-10	14.4	12.9	1.47	14.7	17.1	-2.48
Al Horford	64	63	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.33	-3	7	-10	14.0	13.6	0.39	15.0	16.6	-1.64
Jonas Jerebko	21	23	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	3	-2	15.8	13.3	2.54	16.1	15.4	0.73
Terry Rozier	8	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.07	-3	7	-10	17.0	13.5	3.47	14.7	15.6	-0.89
Gerald Green	8	7	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	11	-18	18.5	13.4	5.10	13.1	15.8	-2.62
Jaylen Brown	32	34	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.05	-9	13	-22	14.9	13.3	1.57	13.8	16.5	-2.72
Kelly Olynyk	26	26	-0.48	0.98	-1.46	0.05	-18	22	-40	17.0	12.7	4.33	14.5	16.0	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.18,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.81,0.64,0.53,0.4,0.39,0.64,0.86,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 91, MIL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.54,0.73,0.69,0.53,0.39,0.53,0.72,0.76,0.92,1	91.3%
GSW 87, CHI 94	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.85,0.98,1	91.2%
DET 73, CLE 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	90.7%