NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	5.3 [759]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +17.9%
Miami Heat	84		Comeback	3.5 [183]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -21.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.20	0.04	0.06	25	63%	0.22	1	-0.04	13	92%	0.05
Delon Wright	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.02	7	62%	0.13	2	-0.01	7	71%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	28%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Norman Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	10	64%	0.04	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	8	44%	0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	2	25%	-0.01	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	6	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	10	64%	0.14	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Okaro White	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	12	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	9	52%	-0.03	4	-0.06	3	67%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	14	29%	-0.07	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.13	-0.07	0.02	18	34%	-0.13	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	40.6	14.8	25.2	2.3	30.3	138.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +30.5%

TOR +17.2%

MIA -1.1%

TOR +4.2%

MIA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	15.0	14.8	106.3	88.4	107.7
season	15.2	15.4		110.0	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.9		105.9	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	14.1	13.0	20.4	15.4
MIA	14.1	15.9	16.5	13.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	44	43	0.78	-0.28	1.06	-0.10	30	-13	43	17.6	13.5	4.12	14.0	15.7	-1.71
Delon Wright	44	44	0.69	-0.19	0.88	-0.07	26	-9	35	16.2	14.6	1.58	15.5	14.5	0.97
Norman Powell	51	50	0.62	-0.12	0.74	-0.08	24	-7	31	16.0	14.7	1.30	15.3	14.6	0.72
Patrick Patterson	42	41	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.04	16	1	15	16.6	14.3	2.30	14.8	15.1	-0.31
DeMar DeRozan	74	75	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.15	3	14	-11	14.1	19.7	-5.59	14.4	17.1	-2.78
Fred VanVleet	11	10	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	11	-5	13.4	15.6	-2.26	16.0	14.8	1.16
DeMarre Carroll	44	44	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	17	-17	13.1	17.3	-4.22	16.4	13.7	2.62
PJ Tucker	65	65	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.12	-8	25	-33	16.1	13.8	2.33	14.6	15.7	-1.13
Cory Joseph	58	59	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.06	-4	21	-25	15.7	14.8	0.85	14.2	16.2	-1.99
Jonas Valanciunas	42	44	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.04	-8	25	-33	13.6	16.7	-3.12	16.0	14.0	1.98

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	31	31	0.21	-0.71	0.92	-0.02	8	-25	33	15.3	14.8	0.54	14.2	15.9	-1.78
Okaro White	4	3	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.12	-6	-11	5	25.7	14.5	11.27	10.7	15.5	-4.84
Hassan Whiteside	62	60	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	-11	5	15.1	14.7	0.35	14.8	16.4	-1.60
Rodney McGruder	72	72	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-15	13	14.4	16.6	-2.18	15.0	16.4	-1.36
Goran Dragic	68	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-9	1	15.8	12.9	2.89	14.3	17.8	-3.46
Josh Richardson	71	71	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-11	5	15.1	14.6	0.45	14.5	17.9	-3.37
Wayne Ellington	24	25	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	-3	-11	17.0	14.3	2.73	16.7	14.9	1.85
Willie Reed	33	35	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	-6	-5	14.7	15.1	-0.35	16.4	14.8	1.60
Tyler Johnson	50	51	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.08	-21	4	-25	13.5	16.6	-3.16	17.7	12.6	5.07
James Johnson	60	61	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.09	-19	2	-21	14.0	16.5	-2.46	16.2	13.9	2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.22,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 106, PHI 98	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.05,0	94.5%
POR 108, BKN 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%
LAL 96, DAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.61,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	93.7%