NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	6.7 [511]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +21.2%
Philadelphia 76ers	98		Comeback	2.8 [640]		LVP	Joel Embiid (PHI): -17.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.16	0.05	0.00	12	81%	0.24	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0.20	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	0.00	12	67%	0.23	2	-0.03	12	92%	0.06
Darrell Arthur	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Wilson Chandler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	62%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Gee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	17	54%	0.07	4	-0.09	7	43%	-0.05
Jameer Nelson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	39%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	6	29%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.03	-0.03	12	63%	0.14	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	8	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	9	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.02	15	53%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	0.01	14	61%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hollis Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
TJ McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	7	25%	-0.02	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Embiid	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.07	0.04	15	44%	-0.08	3	-0.09	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.8	33.1	15.7	27.3	2.6	36.0	144.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.2%

DEN +13.9%

PHI -8.1%

DEN +3.7%

DEN +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHI	NBA	DEN	PHI	NBA
this game	14.1	14.3	14.8	103.9	97.0	107.7
season	14.4	14.5		111.6	101.9
opponent	14.4	14.5		107.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	11.4	15.0	14.2	16.4	14.1
PHI	13.9	16.3	13.5	13.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	62	63	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.25	16	-8	24	14.7	13.1	1.58	14.2	14.4	-0.25
Darrell Arthur	52	52	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.22	14	-6	20	13.7	14.6	-0.89	12.3	16.3	-3.96
Wilson Chandler	58	56	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	1	6	14.1	14.1	-0.01	13.1	15.8	-2.68
Jamal Murray	50	52	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.06	12	-4	16	14.0	14.2	-0.25	14.3	14.2	0.04
Will Barton	74	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	3	2	14.4	13.4	0.94	14.9	12.7	2.20
Danilo Gallinari	81	78	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.17	0	8	-8	14.3	13.3	0.98	14.2	14.4	-0.22
Alonzo Gee	1	2	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	10	-12	5.0	14.2	-9.20	11.0	14.3	-3.33
Emmanuel Mudiay	45	44	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	8	-8	13.3	14.8	-1.51	15.0	13.7	1.34
Juan Hernangomez	10	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	8	-8	13.7	14.2	-0.45	14.1	14.3	-0.19
Jusuf Nurkic	49	47	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	13	-18	14.5	13.7	0.81	16.3	12.5	3.88
Kenneth Faried	28	28	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.02	-7	15	-22	13.6	14.3	-0.69	14.6	14.2	0.42

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richaun Holmes	36	37	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.02	5	-13	18	14.5	14.2	0.32	15.2	13.5	1.65
Sergio Rodriguez	66	68	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.10	5	-13	18	14.5	13.9	0.63	14.7	13.0	1.66
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	23	24	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-5	2	13.2	14.6	-1.42	12.3	14.7	-2.32
Gerald Henderson	55	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-8	8	14.5	14.0	0.45	14.6	13.5	1.07
Nik Stauskas	70	72	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-10	12	14.9	12.8	2.15	14.7	12.8	1.85
Ersan Ilyasova	74	76	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-7	6	14.4	13.8	0.67	14.4	13.3	1.02
Hollis Thompson	36	33	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	3	-14	14.1	14.3	-0.20	13.4	14.4	-1.06
Joel Embiid	56	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.20	-9	1	-10	14.0	14.6	-0.64	13.5	14.9	-1.48
TJ McConnell	35	34	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.17	-13	5	-18	13.9	14.5	-0.63	13.0	14.7	-1.66
Dario Saric	54	53	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.21	-15	7	-22	13.7	15.0	-1.29	13.7	14.6	-0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.03,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 110, MEM 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
TOR 101, MIA 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.69,0.76,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.22,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.5%
MEM 93, WAS 82	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.76,0.72,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.4,0.4,0.22,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.3%