NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	107		Excitement	6.5 [540]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +17.4%
Washington Wizards	112		Comeback	1.4 [1123]		LVP	Michael Carter-Williams (CHI): -10.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.17	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.17	0.13	0.08	0.04	17	67%	0.21	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.02
Robin Lopez	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.00	0.02	16	76%	0.17	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.06	-0.02	16	44%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Denzel Valentine	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	10	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Paul Zipser	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	11	36%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	4	58%	0.03	6	-0.14	4	50%	-0.03

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	18	65%	0.19	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	11	73%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.01	14	47%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.07	-0.02	9	44%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	15	52%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
John Wall	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.07	-0.02	13	44%	0.10	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.03
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	25.3	14.6	24.6	2.4	34.0	126.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -1.7%

WAS +16.4%

WAS +13.1%

WAS +22.7%

CHI -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	14.4	14.8	14.8	108.1	114.3	107.7
season	15.1	14.4		105.9	109.9
opponent	14.9	14.8		108.7	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.4	14.4	15.1	13.7	14.4
WAS	14.4	13.3	13.7	18.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Carter-Williams	33	33	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.13	8	-13	21	13.9	14.7	-0.79	13.6	15.4	-1.81
Joffrey Lauvergne	14	14	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.14	7	-12	19	15.2	14.3	0.91	19.6	14.0	5.56
Cristiano Felicio	14	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-4	3	14.3	14.5	-0.17	12.6	15.2	-2.61
Nikola Mirotic	66	65	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.35	6	-11	17	14.5	14.4	0.06	15.0	14.5	0.44
Denzel Valentine	64	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-6	7	14.5	14.3	0.14	15.1	14.3	0.85
Paul Zipser	58	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	5	-15	14.1	14.9	-0.80	14.4	15.4	-1.00
Bobby Portis	33	33	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.00	-11	6	-17	14.4	14.5	-0.06	14.5	15.0	-0.44
Robin Lopez	69	68	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	1	-7	14.4	14.6	-0.24	14.3	15.9	-1.62
Jimmy Butler	78	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.34	-6	1	-7	14.6	13.9	0.73	14.8	14.7	0.18
Rajon Rondo	66	65	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.22	-13	8	-21	14.7	13.9	0.79	15.4	13.6	1.81

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wall	67	68	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.29	12	-7	19	15.0	14.4	0.66	14.8	13.5	1.29
Bradley Beal	64	66	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.23	12	-7	19	15.0	14.5	0.47	14.3	14.6	-0.30
Jason Smith	77	78	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-6	17	14.9	14.5	0.36	14.3	14.8	-0.42
Otto Porter Jr.	78	78	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	2	1	14.9	14.3	0.64	14.5	14.3	0.19
Marcin Gortat	43	44	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	7	-9	15.8	14.1	1.71	14.8	14.1	0.65
Bojan Bogdanovic	51	52	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	2	1	14.4	15.3	-0.94	14.6	14.2	0.38
Kelly Oubre Jr.	32	31	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.05	2	3	-1	14.1	15.2	-1.10	13.6	14.8	-1.20
Ian Mahinmi	42	42	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.13	-7	12	-19	14.4	15.1	-0.79	14.3	14.5	-0.18
Brandon Jennings	36	36	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.12	-9	14	-23	14.4	15.1	-0.70	14.1	14.6	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.96,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 89, ORL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.97,1,1	95.1%
CHA 88, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.92,1	94.7%
MIA 92, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.91,1	94.6%