NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	5.4 [764]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +34.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	100		Comeback	1.3 [1062]		LVP	Jason Williams (MIA): -8.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.01	24	53%	0.11	1	-0.03	16	75%	0.02
James Posey	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	8	61%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.03	14	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	25%	-0.12
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	-0.02	10	54%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.03
Antoine Walker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	10	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.35	0.35	0.19	0.14	-0.01	24	65%	0.36	1	-0.02	9	100%	0.05
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.01	9	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	7	28%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	12	59%	0.07	4	-0.09	8	87%	0.02
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.8	34.1	20.5	32.4	3.3	39.5	157.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +41.8%

LAL +11.0%

LAL +2.2%

MIA -8.2%

LAL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	16.2	16.9	15.6	105.7	114.9	104.4
season	15.5	15.6		106.1	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		104.3	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	16.2	15.6	16.8	16.2
LAL	15.9	17.3	17.9	16.7	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	28	29	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-12	16	15.2	16.6	-1.40	20.1	15.4	4.74
Udonis Haslem	62	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.27	1	-9	10	16.6	15.0	1.57	16.9	17.1	-0.19
Jason Williams	47	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	6	-20	17.2	15.0	2.20	16.1	17.9	-1.78
Antoine Walker	32	32	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.00	-10	2	-12	15.3	16.7	-1.34	17.4	16.7	0.78
Gary Payton	57	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.30	0	-8	8	15.3	17.7	-2.40	17.6	15.6	1.98
James Posey	73	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.28	-2	-6	4	16.2	16.1	0.11	16.5	19.3	-2.79
Shaquille O'Neal	58	56	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.26	-10	2	-12	16.7	15.1	1.53	15.9	18.8	-2.90
Dwyane Wade	78	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	1	-10	16.1	16.8	-0.69	16.8	18.3	-1.53

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	75	76	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-6	20	16.1	22.2	-6.06	16.6	13.0	3.62
Smush Parker	74	75	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.25	9	-1	10	16.3	20.6	-4.32	15.7	19.1	-3.39
Lamar Odom	75	75	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.26	3	5	-2	16.4	20.5	-4.13	16.2	15.7	0.57
Kwame Brown	55	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	6	-4	17.1	16.6	0.55	15.8	16.9	-1.10
Devean George	49	48	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	7	-6	17.4	16.4	1.02	15.4	17.1	-1.66
Chris Mihm	38	38	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	3	2	17.4	16.6	0.90	17.6	15.1	2.52
Luke Walton	24	22	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	2	4	18.6	16.3	2.32	16.0	16.2	-0.28
Andrew Bynum	7	8	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	6	-4	13.4	17.2	-3.82	14.9	16.3	-1.42
Brian Cook	18	18	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	8	-8	17.2	16.9	0.35	17.1	15.9	1.20
Sasha Vujacic	20	19	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	10	-12	20.9	15.7	5.20	15.9	16.2	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, DAL 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.94,1,1	95.0%
MIA 80, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.99,1,0.98,0.91,1	94.9%
CHI 107, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.96,0.91,1	94.6%