NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	4.6 [930]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +17.1%
Boston Celtics	88		Comeback	1.2 [721]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -20.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.05	-0.03	7	43%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Eddie House	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
LeBron James	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	0.03	21	57%	0.07	8	-0.13	12	67%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	33%	-0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.21	-0.20	-0.05	-0.03	16	34%	-0.07	6	-0.14	6	67%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.06	0.01	7	86%	0.21	3	-0.04	8	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	13	74%	0.17	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	7	81%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	7	41%	0.00	1	-0.02	8	37%	-0.04
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.18	0.02	-0.10	11	38%	0.05	7	-0.11	4	50%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	12%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.13	0.00	-0.05	9	22%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.4	37.4	19.8	33.2	1.7	38.0	157.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +46.2%

BOS +0.3%

BOS +5.2%

MIA -3.0%

BOS +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.5	87.9	94.6	105.7
season	16.0	15.7		109.0	104.8
opponent	15.8	15.6		99.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.1	14.6	16.9	14.3	15.6
BOS	16.4	12.6	16.6	17.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	22	23	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.28	17	-25	42	13.6	16.3	-2.67	14.7	16.0	-1.26
Carlos Arroyo	22	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-3	-2	18.5	14.7	3.74	16.5	15.5	1.00
Eddie House	55	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-8	8	14.3	17.6	-3.26	14.6	17.2	-2.57
Joel Anthony	29	30	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.10	-12	4	-16	17.0	15.0	2.03	17.0	15.1	1.89
James Jones	48	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-6	4	14.9	16.5	-1.61	16.1	15.1	0.99
LeBron James	79	83	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-9	10	15.2	18.1	-2.84	16.1	12.6	3.46
Udonis Haslem	60	61	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-4	0	14.4	17.9	-3.47	15.6	15.9	-0.28
Chris Bosh	71	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.13	-17	9	-26	16.7	11.8	4.83	15.6	16.1	-0.53
Dwyane Wade	69	70	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.12	-18	10	-28	16.7	12.2	4.47	15.5	16.3	-0.82

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	79	77	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-4	16	15.5	16.8	-1.29	16.0	13.5	2.50
Kevin Garnett	67	66	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	1	6	15.6	15.8	-0.17	15.7	15.3	0.41
Rajon Rondo	78	76	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.27	4	4	0	16.5	11.5	4.95	15.5	16.0	-0.46
Glen Davis	60	57	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.28	1	7	-6	15.8	15.5	0.32	14.3	17.8	-3.43
Nate Robinson	22	22	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.06	7	1	6	13.5	16.4	-2.87	16.4	15.4	0.99
Ray Allen	76	73	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.27	-2	10	-12	16.1	13.9	2.14	15.1	17.7	-2.63
Shaquille O'Neal	32	34	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	1	6	15.5	15.8	-0.24	17.8	14.3	3.43
Marquis Daniels	25	25	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.03	3	5	-2	14.5	16.1	-1.65	15.5	15.7	-0.13
Jermaine O'Neal	26	25	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	7	-6	15.8	15.6	0.17	15.3	15.7	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.86,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.99,1,0.98,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 103, DAL 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.94,1,1	95.6%
SAC 82, SEA 87	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.82,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.96,1	95.5%
NJN 83, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.96,1	95.2%