NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	88		Excitement	4.9 [819]		MVP	Luc Mbah a Moute (MIL): +8.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.2 [861]		LVP	Raymond Felton (CHA): -11.7%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.02	0.16	-0.06	0.07	25	65%	0.08	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Gerald Wallace	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	10	55%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	6	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	10	55%	0.04	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.06	0.03	8	58%	-0.05	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Raymond Felton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.04	0.05	10	45%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	7	86%	0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	-0.04	14	53%	0.06	3	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	16	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	10	37%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	18	45%	0.02	5	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	28.5	15.6	27.0	2.5	35.4	137.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +31.8%

CHA -5.6%

MIL +11.9%

MIL +6.3%

MIL +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIL	NBA	CHA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.8	15.3	98.9	101.1	106.0
season	16.2	15.5		103.0	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		101.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	15.5	18.9	13.7	16.4	16.0
MIL	15.2	17.1	15.7	15.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Graham	4	4	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-6	7	13.2	16.1	-2.86	12.7	16.0	-3.24
Nazr Mohammed	21	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-4	3	14.8	16.4	-1.59	16.5	15.7	0.80
Tyrus Thomas	56	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.45	7	-12	19	15.8	16.2	-0.42	15.8	15.8	0.01
D.J. Augustin	42	43	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	1	-7	15.9	16.1	-0.18	16.2	15.5	0.68
Boris Diaw	80	83	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.43	4	-9	13	15.4	21.4	-6.08	15.6	18.2	-2.63
Gerald Wallace	85	88	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.40	1	-6	7	15.8	19.0	-3.16	15.8	17.2	-1.47
Theo Ratliff	21	19	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.19	-20	15	-35	20.0	14.7	5.20	16.3	15.7	0.52
Raymond Felton	56	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.19	-8	3	-11	16.9	14.4	2.56	15.9	15.7	0.27
Stephen Jackson	80	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	15.6	18.9	-3.24	15.8	16.2	-0.41

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	67	66	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.21	17	-12	29	16.0	15.3	0.72	16.7	13.9	2.84
Andrew Bogut	77	74	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.28	13	-8	21	15.6	17.0	-1.38	16.5	13.4	3.10
John Salmons	70	68	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.32	5	0	5	15.8	16.0	-0.14	16.5	14.4	2.03
Carlos Delfino	56	54	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	-4	13	16.5	14.8	1.71	15.8	16.3	-0.46
Luc Mbah a Moute	74	72	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	0	5	16.3	14.0	2.30	16.6	13.3	3.32
Ersan Ilyasova	18	17	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	5	-5	14.0	16.3	-2.30	13.3	16.6	-3.32
Royal Ivey	5	5	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	2	1	19.0	15.7	3.33	23.4	15.5	7.86
Jerry Stackhouse	36	35	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	9	-13	14.8	16.5	-1.71	16.3	15.8	0.46
Charlie Bell	22	21	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	5	-5	16.0	15.8	0.14	14.4	16.5	-2.03
Kurt Thomas	15	15	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.07	-8	13	-21	17.0	15.6	1.38	13.4	16.5	-3.10
Luke Ridnour	20	18	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.18	-15	20	-35	14.4	16.2	-1.85	11.2	17.2	-5.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.85,0.88,0.83,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 107, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.96,0.91,1	94.7%
GSW 72, MIL 79	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.91,1	94.7%
NYK 74, BOS 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.9,1	94.6%