NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	72		Excitement	4.8 [901]		MVP	John Salmons (MIL): +11.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	79		Comeback	1.0 [1196]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -16.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Adrien	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	16	71%	0.15	7	-0.17	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Andris Biedrins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.15	0.00	-0.03	14	22%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Stephen Curry	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	14	23%	-0.13	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.02	17	68%	0.16	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	15	48%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.02	2	67%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	6	17%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	-0.06	12	31%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	19	44%	0.03	5	-0.09	5	100%	0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	6	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	26.3	15.7	24.5	2.0	31.3	124.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +1.5%

MIL +11.6%

MIL +31.7%

MIL +2.9%

MIL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIL	NBA	GSW	MIL	NBA
this game	15.2	16.6	15.5	80.0	86.8	105.7
season	14.8	16.2		106.6	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.2		100.9	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.3	14.6	17.4	16.1	15.2
MIL	17.3	14.2	16.1	19.0	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Bell	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.17	5	-12	17	17.2	14.6	2.56	16.3	16.7	-0.39
Brandan Wright	17	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-6	5	13.6	15.6	-1.97	15.1	16.9	-1.86
Jeff Adrien	35	35	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.37	10	-17	27	15.9	14.8	1.05	17.1	16.2	0.93
Rodney Carney	15	15	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-2	-3	15.2	15.3	-0.05	12.6	17.4	-4.76
Dan Gadzuric	22	22	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.11	-11	4	-15	15.9	15.0	0.88	16.7	16.5	0.15
Reggie Williams	45	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-10	13	15.2	15.3	-0.04	16.4	16.7	-0.32
Vladimir Radmanovic	46	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-2	-3	16.4	14.1	2.30	17.1	16.1	1.00
Dorell Wright	61	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.05	-10	3	-13	14.5	16.8	-2.34	16.2	17.4	-1.24
Andris Biedrins	54	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.15	-7	0	-7	14.7	16.1	-1.44	16.8	16.2	0.60
Monta Ellis	78	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-5	3	15.1	16.3	-1.26	16.7	15.6	1.14
Stephen Curry	55	56	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	5	-17	15.0	15.6	-0.58	17.5	15.1	2.46

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	75	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.17	14	-7	21	17.0	14.6	2.36	16.1	10.9	5.17
Andrew Bogut	73	72	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-6	19	16.5	17.1	-0.60	15.7	13.6	2.11
Luc Mbah a Moute	70	71	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-6	19	16.3	17.6	-1.30	16.3	11.5	4.78
John Salmons	75	74	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.17	12	-5	17	16.8	15.6	1.22	15.5	14.2	1.29
Drew Gooden	56	59	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	-1	9	16.8	16.2	0.60	16.3	13.3	2.98
Keyon Dooling	27	26	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	5	-3	14.4	17.5	-3.02	13.6	15.9	-2.29
Earl Boykins	11	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	9	-11	15.6	16.7	-1.06	13.0	15.5	-2.53
Corey Maggette	30	29	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.22	-9	16	-25	17.5	16.1	1.34	13.3	16.2	-2.85
Ersan Ilyasova	26	23	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.18	-8	15	-23	16.2	16.7	-0.48	11.2	16.6	-5.41
Jon Brockman	12	11	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.13	-8	15	-23	18.2	16.3	1.84	12.5	15.6	-3.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 94, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.97,1,0.99,0.98,0.95,1	95.6%
MIL 87, ORL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.98,1,1,1	95.3%
PHX 99, NYK 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	95.2%