NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	115		Excitement	7.7 [319]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +29.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Comeback	1.0 [722]		LVP	James Johnson (MIA): -15.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.29	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.25	0.06	0.02	17	97%	0.39	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.06	0.01	8	94%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04	0.06	-0.02	0.01	14	59%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.03
Tyler Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	9	40%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Okaro White	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Willie Reed	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	38%	0.04	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Luke Babbitt	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	13	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
James Johnson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.16	-0.09	-0.10	-0.03	9	55%	0.15	6	-0.31	2	0%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23	0.23	0.18	0.06	0.02	20	70%	0.27	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	8	76%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	0.00	8	64%	0.11	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Cole Aldrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Muhammad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	11	46%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	62%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.12	-0.12	0.09	-0.19	0.02	23	55%	-0.09	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	27.8	14.0	24.3	2.3	35.3	130.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +71.2%

MIN -15.6%

MIA +24.4%

MIN -30.8%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	14.8	121.1	121.5	107.7
season	15.4	15.3		106.7	109.3
opponent	14.7	14.5		110.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	16.0	14.7	15.7	15.6
MIN	15.1	14.0	16.0	15.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	67	66	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.31	17	-15	32	15.4	16.0	-0.59	15.2	14.4	0.80
Hassan Whiteside	71	69	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-10	22	15.4	16.2	-0.79	15.3	14.1	1.19
Rodney McGruder	76	75	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-3	8	15.6	15.9	-0.34	15.1	14.7	0.36
James Johnson	58	57	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.42	1	1	0	14.9	16.8	-1.86	15.4	14.3	1.11
Dion Waiters	67	67	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.38	-5	7	-12	15.2	16.5	-1.30	14.7	15.7	-0.95
Wayne Ellington	32	31	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	2	-2	15.4	15.7	-0.32	14.1	15.5	-1.42
Willie Reed	24	23	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.15	-7	9	-16	16.2	15.4	0.79	14.7	15.1	-0.48
Luke Babbitt	26	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.09	-6	8	-14	16.2	15.4	0.79	15.0	15.0	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	43	41	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.14	-8	10	-18	16.8	14.7	2.09	15.4	14.7	0.72
Okaro White	11	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.14	1	1	0	18.1	15.3	2.79	12.5	15.3	-2.80

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Aldrich	10	11	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-5	8	12.9	15.3	-2.37	17.9	15.3	2.59
Gorgui Dieng	48	48	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-5	8	15.5	14.5	0.93	16.1	15.1	1.02
Nemanja Bjelica	25	27	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-2	2	14.9	15.0	-0.12	16.4	15.3	1.15
Brandon Rush	64	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	2	-6	15.2	14.7	0.47	15.6	15.7	-0.12
Andrew Wiggins	72	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-3	4	15.0	15.0	-0.05	15.3	16.8	-1.50
Shabazz Muhammad	41	43	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-2	2	14.6	15.3	-0.72	16.0	15.3	0.65
Karl-Anthony Towns	74	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	2	-6	15.2	14.3	0.87	15.1	17.5	-2.38
Tyus Jones	60	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.45	-1	-1	0	15.2	14.6	0.63	15.2	16.4	-1.18
Ricky Rubio	71	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.34	-8	6	-14	14.8	15.8	-1.00	15.7	15.5	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 90, IND 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.28,0.09,0.04,0	93.6%
WAS 109, CHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.07,0.02,0	93.0%
MIN 94, LAC 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.23,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.15,0	92.8%