NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	90		Excitement	7.1 [387]		MVP	Duane Ferrell (IND): +12.2%
Indiana Pacers	87		Comeback	1.0 [616]		LVP	Vlade Divac (CHH): -29.9%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1	-0.00	0.08	-0.02	20	54%	0.16	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Glen Rice	0.02	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.09	-0.04	0.02	16	59%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Delk	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	7	60%	0.03	4	-0.06	6	83%	0.04
Anthony Mason	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	16	51%	-0.03	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.03
Vlade Divac	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	8	36%	-0.17	3	-0.13	9	33%	-0.14

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duane Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	8	89%	0.21	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Vincent Askew	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.08	0.02	8	56%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.04
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21	-0.21	-0.09	-0.13	-0.01	17	35%	-0.11	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.15,-0.25	-0.25	-0.06	-0.20	-0.01	12	54%	-0.17	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.4	25.1	15.7	26.3	2.4	39.3	135.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +13.6%

CHH +18.0%

CHH +9.5%

CHH +8.0%

CHH +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHH	IND	NBA	CHH	IND	NBA
this game	17.7	14.1	15.6	100.0	95.6	104.4
season	15.7	15.3		108.0	103.6
opponent	16.3	16.0		101.9	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHH	15.8	17.6	19.0	18.5	17.7
IND	16.2	14.3	14.4	11.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Goldwire	66	67	0.60	-0.09	0.69	0.45	5	-2	7	16.5	21.2	-4.80	14.6	12.9	1.68
Dell Curry	84	86	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-6	15	17.4	23.0	-5.64	14.3	10.6	3.71
Vlade Divac	68	69	0.53	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	-5	13	17.8	17.5	0.31	14.5	12.9	1.64
Glen Rice	87	87	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.37	5	-2	7	17.8	16.0	1.79	14.2	12.0	2.21
Anthony Mason	85	86	0.41	0.10	0.31	0.47	-2	5	-7	17.8	17.4	0.35	13.8	19.0	-5.17
Muggsy Bogues	10	10	0.17	0.34	-0.17	-0.07	8	-5	13	20.8	17.3	3.45	17.1	13.7	3.36
Malik Rose	14	15	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	4	-5	17.8	17.7	0.06	14.7	14.0	0.67
Matt Geiger	16	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	6	-9	16.9	17.9	-0.97	12.9	14.4	-1.50
Tony Delk	6	5	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	9	-15	23.0	17.4	5.64	10.6	14.3	-3.71
Tony Smith	14	14	-0.22	0.73	-0.95	0.01	-8	11	-19	21.6	17.0	4.55	9.9	14.9	-5.03

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vincent Askew	34	35	0.12	-0.63	0.76	-0.29	14	-17	31	12.6	15.0	-2.48	19.0	16.9	2.12
Jalen Rose	30	30	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.20	10	-13	23	11.9	15.2	-3.30	20.6	16.3	4.30
Jerome Allen	20	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-4	5	14.0	14.1	-0.14	17.8	17.7	0.09
Duane Ferrell	35	33	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.37	11	-14	25	11.9	15.5	-3.61	18.8	17.1	1.71
Erick Dampier	24	26	-0.19	-0.32	0.13	0.05	-8	5	-13	15.2	13.7	1.49	18.9	17.2	1.67
Dale Davis	64	65	-0.31	-0.20	-0.11	-0.02	-10	7	-17	15.2	11.4	3.79	18.2	16.6	1.51
Antonio Davis	60	56	-0.38	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-6	9	14.0	14.4	-0.42	17.2	18.7	-1.52
Travis Best	71	71	-0.50	-0.01	-0.49	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.1	14.0	0.14	17.5	18.7	-1.27
Reggie Miller	62	61	-0.65	0.14	-0.79	-0.26	-13	10	-23	15.0	12.3	2.69	16.1	21.2	-5.12
Derrick McKey	55	53	-0.69	0.18	-0.87	-0.10	-20	17	-37	15.1	12.6	2.48	16.3	19.8	-3.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.28,0.09,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 97, CHH 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.21,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.19,0.11,0.02,0,0	94.0%
IND 106, BKN 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.04,0	93.8%
MIA 115, MIN 113	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.32,0.21,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.22,0.04,0.01,0	93.6%