NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	108		Excitement	6.5 [539]		MVP	Seth Curry (DAL): +39.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	104		Comeback	1.0 [510]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -28.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Seth Curry	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.39,0.4,0.4	0.12	0.25	-0.02	12	68%	0.40	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Yogi Ferrell	0.37	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.37	0.26	0.15	0.04	17	89%	0.43	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Wesley Matthews	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22	0.12	0.08	-0.02	17	63%	0.27	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.06
Dirk Nowitzki	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	9	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Salah Mejri	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dwight Powell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Harrison Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	14	46%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	5	8%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.29	0.29	0.11	0.18	0.00	20	64%	0.35	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	10	70%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	17	65%	0.21	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Mason Plumlee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	7	56%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	2	83%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.24,-0.29	-0.29	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	20	29%	-0.17	2	-0.12	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.6	32.0	15.8	26.0	2.8	37.0	139.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +56.4%

DAL +8.6%

POR -24.6%

DAL +8.8%

DAL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	16.6	14.8	14.8	117.4	114.3	107.7
season	16.2	14.9		104.4	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.7		109.8	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.3	16.1	18.7	16.5	16.6
POR	16.0	14.5	14.7	14.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Seth Curry	55	57	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.13	17	-13	30	16.7	16.5	0.24	15.4	13.9	1.43
Dirk Nowitzki	60	58	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.29	11	-7	18	17.6	14.9	2.69	15.5	13.6	1.93
Harrison Barnes	71	72	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.25	6	-2	8	16.5	17.2	-0.73	14.8	14.9	-0.14
Wesley Matthews	78	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	6	-8	16.5	17.4	-0.86	14.5	16.4	-1.87
Yogi Ferrell	75	74	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	1	2	16.5	17.4	-0.89	15.0	14.0	1.03
Dorian Finney-Smith	65	62	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.41	-5	9	-14	16.4	17.1	-0.68	14.2	16.1	-1.86
Justin Anderson	5	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	5	-6	16.0	16.7	-0.67	14.8	14.8	-0.00
Salah Mejri	34	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.11	-4	8	-12	16.7	16.6	0.17	14.3	15.1	-0.79
Dwight Powell	17	17	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.08	-5	9	-14	15.8	16.8	-1.06	14.5	14.9	-0.45

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	29	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.12	2	-6	8	15.8	14.4	1.41	17.3	16.3	0.99
Mason Plumlee	60	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-2	0	14.7	15.0	-0.25	16.6	16.7	-0.17
Noah Vonleh	14	14	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.18	-15	11	-26	16.9	14.5	2.47	15.1	16.9	-1.75
CJ McCollum	68	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.34	2	-6	8	14.6	15.4	-0.80	16.8	16.1	0.68
Al-Farouq Aminu	71	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.52	7	-11	18	14.5	15.9	-1.43	16.7	16.2	0.55
Allen Crabbe	44	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	0	-4	14.7	14.9	-0.16	15.7	17.6	-1.81
Damian Lillard	73	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-3	2	14.7	15.3	-0.55	16.1	18.6	-2.46
Evan Turner	61	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-1	-2	14.5	15.5	-0.99	17.1	15.8	1.27
Maurice Harkless	35	36	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	2	-8	15.3	14.6	0.73	17.6	16.0	1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.12,0.21,0.11,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.1,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, BOS 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.27,0.16,0.16,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.22,0.38,0.24,0.15,0.26,0.15,0.27,0.25,0.15,0.1,0.17,0	92.5%
LAC 94, GSW 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.04,0.02,0	91.7%
MIL 97, OKC 95	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.34,0.2,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.08,0	91.4%