NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	109		Excitement	8.7 [181]		MVP	Isaiah Thomas (BOS): +81.1%
Boston Celtics	113		Comeback	1.9 [696]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -27.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.19	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.07	0.01	19	62%	0.21	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.06
Tobias Harris	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	14	50%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ish Smith	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.02	7	86%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	16	45%	0.16	1	-0.07	8	75%	0.02
Jon Leuer	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.04	0.00	5	43%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Beno Udrih	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	16	41%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	7	31%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Jackson	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.28	-0.06	-0.21	-0.00	12	40%	-0.22	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.28,0.41,0.41,0.67,0.73,0.81	0.81	0.21	0.61	0.01	23	67%	0.89	3	-0.08	15	100%	0.14
Jae Crowder	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.09	0.01	12	66%	0.21	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	10	65%	0.13	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	2	75%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.2	-0.20	-0.03	-0.17	-0.00	13	41%	-0.11	1	-0.09	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	31.4	17.4	26.0	2.8	44.5	147.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +69.3%

BOS +3.3%

DET -13.2%

DET -11.9%

BOS +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	13.1	15.0	14.8	105.8	110.8	107.7
season	15.0	14.7		105.0	110.1
opponent	14.9	15.1		108.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.9	12.6	12.5	13.5	13.1
BOS	16.7	13.1	15.8	14.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	41	40	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.05	6	-10	16	14.2	12.3	1.83	14.6	15.3	-0.76
Beno Udrih	1	1	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-4	4	4.0	13.2	-9.16	3.0	15.2	-12.16
Tobias Harris	64	63	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.18	2	-6	8	12.7	13.7	-1.09	14.4	16.0	-1.60
Marcus Morris	73	74	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.42	10	-14	24	13.4	12.3	1.08	15.7	13.4	2.32
Reggie Bullock	18	18	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	4	-12	12.1	13.3	-1.16	12.3	15.6	-3.35
Andre Drummond	86	85	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.26	0	-4	4	13.5	10.7	2.83	15.6	12.2	3.44
Stanley Johnson	42	39	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	8	-20	13.3	12.9	0.33	13.5	16.0	-2.47
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	76	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.42	0	-4	4	13.1	12.9	0.29	15.3	14.2	1.11
Reggie Jackson	59	60	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	3	-10	12.2	14.3	-2.14	15.5	14.4	1.12
Jon Leuer	55	55	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.28	-11	7	-18	12.8	13.4	-0.61	15.6	14.3	1.30

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	66	65	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.42	11	-7	18	14.3	16.3	-2.00	12.8	13.6	-0.77
Jae Crowder	76	78	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-3	10	15.0	15.2	-0.15	12.8	13.9	-1.07
Amir Johnson	33	35	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-6	16	14.5	15.3	-0.86	13.1	13.1	0.03
Gerald Green	29	30	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.00	12	-8	20	14.2	15.4	-1.21	13.2	13.0	0.23
Al Horford	73	73	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.39	-3	7	-10	15.3	14.3	1.02	13.2	12.8	0.33
Jonas Jerebko	53	52	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.24	-1	5	-6	15.1	15.0	0.11	12.8	13.4	-0.60
Isaiah Thomas	78	78	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.42	-10	14	-24	15.7	13.0	2.61	13.1	12.9	0.25
Kelly Olynyk	42	43	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.08	6	-2	8	14.7	15.2	-0.51	13.6	12.7	0.92
Jaylen Brown	38	39	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.09	-7	11	-18	16.6	14.1	2.50	12.5	13.4	-0.93
Terry Rozier	22	22	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.20	-5	9	-14	13.9	15.3	-1.44	14.7	12.6	2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.77,0.53,0.35,0.46,0.6,0.64,0.84,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, BOS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.77,0.81,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.63,0.47,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.84,0.9,0.96,1	92.5%
DAL 79, UTA 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.81,0.82,0.72,0.58,0.41,0.4,0.61,0.69,0.85,0.78,0.95,1	92.2%
ORL 102, TOR 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.54,0.47,0.62,0.54,0.84,0.92,1	91.9%