NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	5.0 [819]		MVP	Willie Reed (MIA): +19.3%
Chicago Bulls	88		Comeback	1.3 [343]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): -29.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Reed	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.04	0.01	11	83%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0.07	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.02	20	63%	0.16	5	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	90%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Okaro White	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	16	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	18	46%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.19	-0.04	-0.01	15	19%	-0.16	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	78%	0.12	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	81%	0.09	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Zipser	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	11	56%	0.04	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	64%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	5	46%	0.00	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	17	39%	-0.06	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.23	-0.08	-0.01	13	11%	-0.20	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	27.0	15.4	25.7	2.4	24.2	120.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.1%

CHI -5.1%

CHI -4.5%

MIA +15.8%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	14.9	14.5	14.8	101.0	90.7	107.7
season	15.4	15.1		106.7	105.9
opponent	14.8	14.5		105.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.2	16.4	13.1	18.3	14.9
CHI	15.5	14.2	15.2	13.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	69	67	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.00	19	-7	26	15.2	14.1	1.17	15.4	12.5	2.95
Willie Reed	74	74	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.01	16	-4	20	15.1	14.3	0.75	15.7	10.6	5.16
Rodney McGruder	58	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.04	17	-5	22	13.3	17.0	-3.70	15.4	13.1	2.35
Dion Waiters	70	71	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	5	2	14.2	16.4	-2.22	14.7	14.1	0.59
Luke Babbitt	33	32	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	4	4	13.4	15.6	-2.27	16.7	13.4	3.26
Wayne Ellington	58	55	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	10	-8	15.9	13.4	2.50	12.5	17.1	-4.61
James Johnson	66	64	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	16	-20	15.7	13.2	2.50	12.9	17.5	-4.61
Udonis Haslem	25	23	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	16	-20	14.3	15.1	-0.75	10.6	15.7	-5.16
Okaro White	42	41	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	13	-14	16.0	14.1	1.86	14.8	14.3	0.56

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Mirotic	31	31	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-17	22	12.9	15.3	-2.35	16.0	14.4	1.68
Cristiano Felicio	46	49	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-13	14	13.0	15.9	-2.90	15.5	14.2	1.29
Rajon Rondo	64	66	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.30	8	-20	28	13.0	17.4	-4.42	16.0	12.7	3.23
Paul Zipser	54	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-8	4	14.5	14.5	0.03	14.9	14.8	0.16
Doug McDermott	49	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-12	12	13.8	15.3	-1.52	15.0	14.7	0.32
Taj Gibson	53	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-3	-6	15.9	12.9	3.00	14.1	15.8	-1.73
Dwyane Wade	55	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.21	-5	-7	2	14.1	15.1	-1.04	15.7	13.7	1.98
Robin Lopez	37	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.10	-16	4	-20	17.0	12.9	4.08	13.0	16.0	-2.95
Jerian Grant	29	29	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	5	-22	16.9	13.5	3.36	12.9	15.7	-2.85
Jimmy Butler	67	69	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.05	-23	11	-34	15.1	13.1	2.08	14.4	15.9	-1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 104, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.23,0.21,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
LAL 113, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.32,0.3,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.5%
IND 98, DET 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.1%