NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Excitement	4.6 [914]		MVP	Alan Anderson (TOR): +18.2%
Toronto Raptors	92		Comeback	1.6 [960]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -25.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.03	11	71%	0.10	1	-0.00	9	89%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	7	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	12	68%	0.14	5	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	17	57%	0.10	5	-0.12	6	100%	0.03
Kevin Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	12	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Kendrick Perkins	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.19	-0.00	0.01	14	87%	0.23	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	-0.00	11	73%	0.11	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.03	0.03	8	59%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	7	29%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	8	53%	0.01	4	-0.08	3	67%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.13	-0.10	0.01	16	31%	-0.18	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.6	29.3	17.4	30.5	2.8	29.0	132.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +17.1%

OKC +13.7%

OKC +11.2%

OKC +3.7%

OKC +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	TOR	NBA	OKC	TOR	NBA
this game	14.8	16.8	15.4	114.3	101.1	104.1
season	14.8	16.1		109.3	104.4
opponent	15.3	15.5		105.8	100.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.2	13.6	14.6	15.9	14.8
TOR	17.5	17.0	18.1	14.7	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	71	71	0.65	-0.15	0.80	-0.17	28	-16	44	14.6	15.8	-1.22	18.0	12.5	5.45
Serge Ibaka	67	68	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.18	26	-14	40	14.7	15.3	-0.66	18.2	12.8	5.38
Russell Westbrook	65	65	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-3	18	14.5	15.8	-1.29	17.8	14.4	3.38
Kendrick Perkins	44	45	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.17	21	-9	30	14.2	15.5	-1.33	18.8	14.8	3.95
Kevin Martin	67	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	11	-10	14.9	14.8	0.02	15.9	19.2	-3.36
Thabo Sefolosha	44	45	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	11	-10	15.4	14.3	1.05	17.0	16.7	0.30
Nick Collison	40	40	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.14	-3	15	-18	15.5	14.3	1.17	15.7	17.6	-1.88
Reggie Jackson	31	31	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.22	-7	19	-26	15.7	14.4	1.36	14.0	18.2	-4.20
Eric Maynor	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	14.3	14.9	-0.55	9.0	17.3	-8.26
DeAndre Liggins	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	15.4	14.8	0.63	8.8	17.4	-8.53
Hasheem Thabeet	13	13	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.23	-10	22	-32	15.3	14.8	0.54	12.1	17.6	-5.51

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	23	23	0.26	-0.76	1.03	-0.09	12	-24	36	14.8	17.5	-2.70	15.1	14.8	0.32
John Lucas III	6	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-18	24	8.8	17.4	-8.53	15.4	14.8	0.63
Quincy Acy	6	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-18	24	8.8	17.4	-8.53	15.4	14.8	0.63
Landry Fields	31	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-12	12	15.3	17.6	-2.29	13.8	15.4	-1.53
Kyle Lowry	45	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-5	-2	16.0	17.6	-1.54	14.5	15.2	-0.66
Alan Anderson	64	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-12	12	15.8	19.3	-3.49	14.9	14.7	0.15
DeMar DeRozan	61	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	2	-16	17.4	15.6	1.79	14.7	15.1	-0.33
Jose Calderon	56	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	0	-12	17.5	15.7	1.86	15.5	13.9	1.58
Ed Davis	64	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.04	-15	3	-18	18.2	13.6	4.62	14.6	15.3	-0.73
Mickael Pietrus	29	30	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.04	-18	6	-24	19.0	15.8	3.23	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Amir Johnson	70	70	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	6	-24	17.7	13.8	3.89	15.1	13.9	1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.23,0.21,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, CHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
LAL 113, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.32,0.3,0.42,0.36,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.3%
MIL 100, NYK 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%