NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	82		Excitement	6.8 [495]		MVP	Josh Richardson (MIA): +19.8%
Charlotte Hornets	91		Comeback	2.4 [745]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -29.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.03	-0.04	14	69%	0.22	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Wayne Ellington	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.01	10	60%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.04	-0.00	16	56%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	71%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Luke Babbitt	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	5	70%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	57%	0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	7	29%	-0.10	3	-0.08	7	29%	-0.09
Goran Dragic	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.19	-0.07	-0.02	11	21%	-0.12	4	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29	-0.20	-0.11	-0.02	9	5%	-0.23	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kemba Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.02	20	52%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.00	10	45%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	43%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	12	54%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	64%	0.06	2	-0.08	6	50%	-0.05
Nicolas Batum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	17	43%	0.02	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	7	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.03	11	17%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	27.5	15.4	23.4	1.7	30.2	123.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -3.8%

CHA +13.1%

CHA +18.0%

CHA +18.3%

CHA +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	13.5	15.6	14.8	82.8	91.9	107.7
season	15.4	15.1		106.7	107.9
opponent	14.8	14.5		107.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.0	14.5	14.4	13.1	13.5
CHA	15.7	14.3	16.3	16.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney McGruder	30	29	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.06	7	-16	23	13.3	13.5	-0.20	15.8	15.5	0.30
Willie Reed	28	28	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-13	17	13.4	13.5	-0.11	15.5	15.7	-0.21
Wayne Ellington	36	35	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.11	4	-13	17	13.7	13.3	0.35	15.5	15.7	-0.25
Tyler Johnson	58	59	0.00	-0.51	0.51	-0.23	8	-17	25	12.9	14.3	-1.44	15.3	16.1	-0.77
James Johnson	36	38	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	-8	7	13.7	13.4	0.30	14.6	16.2	-1.60
Luke Babbitt	44	43	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.00	-16	7	-23	13.9	13.2	0.70	15.3	15.8	-0.51
Josh Richardson	67	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.19	-10	1	-11	14.0	12.5	1.49	15.8	15.2	0.56
Justise Winslow	60	59	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	4	-17	13.2	13.9	-0.70	16.6	14.2	2.38
Hassan Whiteside	71	71	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.15	-13	4	-17	13.5	13.4	0.11	15.7	15.5	0.21
Goran Dragic	65	67	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	6	-21	13.3	13.7	-0.40	15.6	15.7	-0.06

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kemba Walker	74	73	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.17	12	-3	15	15.8	15.0	0.82	13.7	12.7	1.01
Cody Zeller	68	67	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-3	15	15.5	15.8	-0.32	13.4	13.6	-0.22
Jeremy Lamb	48	49	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.23	9	0	9	15.2	16.0	-0.79	13.9	13.1	0.80
Nicolas Batum	75	74	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	-1	11	15.7	15.2	0.54	13.0	14.8	-1.77
Frank Kaminsky	39	41	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.11	7	2	5	15.3	15.8	-0.59	13.6	13.4	0.27
Marvin Williams	53	51	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	9	-9	15.9	15.3	0.58	13.0	14.0	-0.94
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	69	69	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.06	1	8	-7	15.5	16.0	-0.50	13.6	13.2	0.39
Ramon Sessions	38	39	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	12	-15	15.7	15.5	0.20	13.5	13.4	0.11
Roy Hibbert	31	32	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.08	-3	12	-15	15.8	15.5	0.32	13.6	13.4	0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.35,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 80, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.99,1	93.0%
MIL 84, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.91,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.97,0.95,1,1,1	92.7%
HOU 88, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.87,0.87,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.9,0.92,1	92.6%