NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	88		Excitement	6.4 [513]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): +13.2%
Chicago Bulls	98		Comeback	1.9 [649]		LVP	Aaron Brooks (HOU): -17.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	14	51%	0.07	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.05
Trevor Ariza	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	14	53%	0.08	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	10	42%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Chase Budinger	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	21	48%	0.02	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Charles Hayes	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.23,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.2,-0.23,-0.17,-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	17	26%	-0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.01	9	85%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.03	0.03	8	67%	0.12	0	0.00	11	82%	-0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	22	56%	0.17	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.02
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	13	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	10	43%	0.03	6	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.5	29.9	15.4	26.6	2.4	37.5	141.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +64.5%

HOU -16.5%

CHI +15.4%

HOU -8.3%

HOU -5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	CHI	NBA	HOU	CHI	NBA
this game	15.3	14.8	15.3	91.7	103.2	106.0
season	15.0	14.7		106.0	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.1		103.9	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.7	13.0	18.0	14.5	15.3
CHI	15.3	13.2	14.8	16.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Jeffries	34	30	0.29	-0.79	1.07	-0.04	11	-21	32	13.0	16.6	-3.66	12.7	15.8	-3.15
Chase Budinger	25	25	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-6	2	15.3	15.4	-0.07	15.5	14.6	0.95
Charles Hayes	27	29	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.01	-8	-2	-6	18.2	14.2	3.97	15.4	14.5	0.90
Kevin Martin	80	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-8	6	15.5	14.3	1.23	15.2	13.0	2.16
Jordan Hill	20	21	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	0	-10	15.6	15.2	0.40	17.8	14.0	3.84
Kyle Lowry	58	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-5	0	14.9	16.0	-1.06	14.7	15.0	-0.30
Aaron Brooks	71	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	2	-14	14.9	16.4	-1.50	14.3	16.3	-2.03
Trevor Ariza	74	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.18	-10	0	-10	15.5	14.9	0.61	14.3	16.4	-2.07
Luis Scola	91	90	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	0	-10	15.6	10.6	4.99	15.0	11.2	3.82

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	62	64	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.09	16	-6	22	15.5	13.6	1.91	16.2	13.6	2.56
Kirk Hinrich	67	68	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	-1	12	14.5	15.7	-1.22	15.8	14.2	1.63
Derrick Rose	93	93	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.19	9	1	8	14.8	13.5	1.35	15.2	18.7	-3.44
Brad Miller	72	72	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.13	6	4	2	14.5	15.8	-1.33	15.3	15.3	0.06
James Johnson	26	26	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	-3	16	13.4	15.3	-1.92	17.5	14.5	2.92
Ronald Murray	69	70	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	13	-16	15.3	13.4	1.92	14.5	17.5	-2.92
Jannero Pargo	32	32	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	8	-6	15.0	14.7	0.22	14.4	15.8	-1.34
Hakim Warrick	29	29	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	10	-10	15.2	14.7	0.56	15.4	15.3	0.16
Joakim Noah	25	26	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.15	-4	14	-18	14.3	15.0	-0.68	13.3	16.1	-2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.87,0.87,0.74,0.78,0.71,0.8,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.9,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 80, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.99,1	93.9%
UTA 89, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.7%
MIN 87, MEM 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.86,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.97,1,1,0.99,1,1	93.4%