NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	7.2 [416]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +36.4%
Chicago Bulls	105		Comeback	1.4 [1098]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (CHI): -11.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.07
Tyler Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	13	52%	0.06	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Josh McRoberts	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02	0.05	-0.06	0.00	5	80%	0.08	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	12	42%	0.00	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Hassan Whiteside	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	19	48%	-0.01	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Goran Dragic	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.05,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	19	54%	0.06	5	-0.17	1	100%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.36	0.36	0.17	0.22	0.02	15	67%	0.42	2	-0.05	16	94%	0.09
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cristiano Felicio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	24	51%	0.12	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.03
Denzel Valentine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	11	54%	0.04	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	28.4	15.5	24.2	2.4	35.7	132.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +0.3%

CHI +40.0%

MIA -7.5%

CHI +14.2%

CHI +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.7	13.6	14.8	102.0	106.1	107.7
season	15.4	15.1		106.7	105.9
opponent	14.8	14.5		105.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	15.4	17.2	14.4	15.7
CHI	13.3	13.4	12.8	15.0	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Reed	32	34	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-5	5	14.6	16.2	-1.57	13.1	13.8	-0.73
Derrick Williams	54	54	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-6	7	15.4	16.0	-0.63	13.2	14.0	-0.78
Tyler Johnson	72	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-8	11	14.7	18.2	-3.51	13.1	15.1	-1.99
Josh Richardson	54	55	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.30	2	-7	9	14.6	17.0	-2.44	13.6	13.5	0.09
Wayne Ellington	49	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	1	-7	16.4	14.9	1.59	14.2	13.0	1.12
Rodney McGruder	51	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	8	-21	16.6	14.7	1.91	13.3	13.9	-0.64
Goran Dragic	68	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-4	3	16.2	14.3	1.95	13.9	12.8	1.09
Josh McRoberts	44	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	1	-7	16.0	15.4	0.63	14.0	13.2	0.78
Hassan Whiteside	66	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	0	-5	16.2	14.6	1.57	13.8	13.1	0.73

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	67	66	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.32	8	-3	11	14.0	12.8	1.20	16.1	14.7	1.48
Robin Lopez	62	62	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.29	6	-1	7	13.7	13.4	0.35	16.0	15.1	0.81
Dwyane Wade	74	72	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	-1	7	13.7	13.3	0.42	14.8	17.9	-3.04
Taj Gibson	51	52	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	2	1	14.3	12.8	1.52	16.6	14.6	2.05
Jimmy Butler	75	76	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	2	1	14.1	12.0	2.11	16.1	14.1	2.01
Jerian Grant	14	13	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	5	-5	12.6	13.8	-1.11	16.0	15.6	0.40
Nikola Mirotic	48	46	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.03	2	3	-1	12.8	14.3	-1.52	14.6	16.6	-2.05
Cristiano Felicio	37	36	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	6	-7	13.4	13.7	-0.35	15.1	16.0	-0.81
Denzel Valentine	13	13	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	4	-3	11.5	13.9	-2.37	13.6	16.0	-2.35
Doug McDermott	54	54	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	8	-11	13.0	14.3	-1.31	15.9	15.3	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.62,0.84,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 82, BOS 85	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.83,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.72,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.73,1	92.9%
GSW 72, POR 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.84,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.72,0.81,0.71,0.67,0.96,1	92.8%
POR 87, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.9,0.99,1,1	92.6%