NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	8.3 [224]		MVP	Mike Muscala (ATL): +23.7%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	2.3 [791]		LVP	Dion Waiters (MIA): -35.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Muscala	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.14	0.10	0.00	7	100%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.12	-0.00	10	65%	0.22	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Kent Bazemore	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0	-0.05	0.05	-0.00	12	43%	0.06	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.04
Paul Millsap	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.01	17	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.15,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	15	56%	0.09	5	-0.17	2	100%	0.03
Malcolm Delaney	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	14%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	9	52%	0.01	5	-0.13	3	33%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	14	63%	0.18	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	11	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.06	-0.00	8	81%	0.15	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	15	50%	0.08	4	-0.14	8	87%	0.04
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	10	58%	0.02	6	-0.17	4	50%	-0.03
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.35	-0.35	-0.19	-0.16	0.01	18	31%	-0.22	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.8	31.2	14.8	25.5	2.7	43.9	142.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +38.4%

ATL +10.4%

MIA -11.9%

ATL +14.1%

MIA -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.3	15.6	14.8	94.9	89.1	107.7
season	14.4	15.4		104.2	106.7
opponent	14.5	14.9		105.9	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.5	13.0	12.5	14.4	13.3
MIA	14.2	16.3	15.7	16.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	70	74	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-7	17	13.1	14.0	-0.96	15.3	16.3	-1.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	49	52	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.38	1	2	-1	13.7	13.0	0.61	14.9	16.2	-1.32
Kent Bazemore	64	64	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	2	-1	13.2	13.6	-0.41	15.6	15.5	0.08
Thabo Sefolosha	47	47	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.46	-5	8	-13	14.1	12.6	1.46	15.0	16.1	-1.14
Dennis Schroder	65	68	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	3	-3	13.2	13.6	-0.34	16.2	14.3	1.92
Malcolm Delaney	33	33	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.16	3	0	3	13.6	13.2	0.34	14.3	16.2	-1.92
Mike Muscala	46	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	0	3	13.1	13.6	-0.49	15.8	15.4	0.44
Kyle Korver	58	61	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.01	5	-2	7	13.2	13.6	-0.39	16.3	14.5	1.76
Dwight Howard	52	52	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	4	-5	13.2	13.5	-0.37	16.0	15.1	0.82
Kris Humphries	6	8	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	5	-7	14.7	13.3	1.41	16.2	15.5	0.74

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	12	11	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.02	1	-4	5	13.7	15.8	-2.06	14.6	13.2	1.45
James Johnson	55	53	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.23	9	-12	21	15.2	16.0	-0.88	13.9	12.7	1.18
Udonis Haslem	2	1	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-1	-1	13.0	15.6	-2.62	20.0	13.3	6.72
Josh McRoberts	18	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	0	-3	15.3	15.6	-0.28	15.1	13.0	2.09
Dion Waiters	71	70	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.42	10	-13	23	15.8	15.0	0.76	13.3	13.6	-0.31
Hassan Whiteside	81	79	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.37	4	-7	11	15.7	15.1	0.58	12.9	15.3	-2.44
Rodney McGruder	76	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-3	3	15.7	15.3	0.38	13.6	12.5	1.16
Derrick Williams	39	39	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.01	-15	12	-27	16.4	15.0	1.42	12.2	14.1	-1.85
Josh Richardson	80	79	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.35	-9	6	-15	15.7	15.1	0.53	13.3	13.7	-0.48
Tyler Johnson	71	67	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.40	-10	7	-17	15.3	16.3	-1.05	13.2	13.6	-0.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.25,0.11,0.16,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 99, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.35,0.23,0.31,0.04,0.01,0,0	91.5%
POR 112, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.33,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0	91.5%
MIA 105, BOS 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.16,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0	91.3%