NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	112		Excitement	6.5 [530]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +27.5%
Houston Rockets	105		Comeback	2.2 [225]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -13.9%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.28	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.28,0.27	0.24	0.07	0.03	28	67%	0.28	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.03
Dorell Wright	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.14	0.13	-0.00	5	107%	0.29	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Mo Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	8	68%	0.13	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	11	41%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	0.03	14	45%	-0.02	3	-0.09	12	83%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	11	27%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.02	11	54%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	11	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	0.04	15	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	0.05	-0.05	0.08	22	63%	0.09	6	-0.17	7	86%	-0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	5	36%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	19	43%	-0.02	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	32.3	17.7	28.5	3.7	45.3	158.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +53.7%

POR +0.1%

HOU -2.1%

HOU -1.6%

HOU -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	HOU	NBA	POR	HOU	NBA
this game	15.7	13.1	15.1	110.9	106.1	105.2
season	15.1	14.3		109.6	109.5
opponent	15.2	14.8		105.4	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.8	15.6	15.2	15.1	15.7
HOU	14.5	13.8	11.9	12.6	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robin Lopez	64	61	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.19	18	-11	29	15.8	15.5	0.31	14.3	11.2	3.10
Damian Lillard	88	86	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-5	17	15.8	14.9	0.84	13.2	12.8	0.32
Dorell Wright	37	36	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	-3	13	16.1	15.4	0.63	13.6	12.9	0.73
Wesley Matthews	82	81	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	3	1	15.7	15.4	0.29	13.2	12.9	0.28
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	76	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	4	-1	15.5	16.2	-0.78	12.7	14.5	-1.77
Nicolas Batum	85	83	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	1	5	15.6	16.0	-0.41	13.2	12.7	0.52
Mo Williams	50	50	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.23	0	7	-7	14.9	16.4	-1.53	12.4	13.8	-1.38
Joel Freeland	4	5	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	9	-11	18.7	15.5	3.22	16.2	13.0	3.24
Thomas Robinson	18	17	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.08	-16	23	-39	16.2	15.5	0.69	9.9	13.8	-3.84

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	11	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	1	-9	12.3	13.2	-0.95	10.4	16.4	-5.94
Dwight Howard	73	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.18	0	-7	7	13.4	12.3	1.05	15.3	16.6	-1.28
Terrence Jones	53	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-1	-5	13.2	13.0	0.19	16.1	15.0	1.10
Jeremy Lin	52	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-4	1	12.9	13.4	-0.46	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Omer Asik	50	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	1	-9	12.4	13.9	-1.46	16.2	15.1	1.04
James Harden	88	89	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.38	1	-8	9	13.2	12.3	0.95	16.4	10.4	5.94
Chandler Parsons	82	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-2	-3	13.4	11.8	1.57	15.7	15.3	0.41
Patrick Beverley	86	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	-1	-5	13.1	13.1	0.05	15.7	15.2	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.33,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 89, PHI 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.43,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.1,0.22,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	93.6%
PHX 99, GSW 88	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.44,0.34,0.21,0.09,0.17,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%
ATL 85, DET 72	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.3,0.19,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.1%