NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	6.4 [307]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +11.1%
Philadelphia 76ers	78		Comeback	2.3 [238]		LVP	Larry Hughes (PHI): -21.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.01	0.09	-0.01	20	57%	0.17	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	9	56%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	9	72%	0.11	4	-0.11	14	79%	0.02
Terry Porter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	11	50%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	7	29%	-0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Rick Mahorn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	41%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	8	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	29	47%	-0.04	4	-0.07	14	79%	0.02
George Lynch	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	11	43%	-0.05	3	-0.12	6	33%	-0.06
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.07	0.00	5	8%	-0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.16	-0.08	-0.02	12	17%	-0.17	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.6	30.3	15.4	31.2	1.8	40.3	143.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +86.4%

MIA +0.5%

PHI -24.2%

PHI -14.7%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	16.9	15.6	15.8	98.9	89.7	99.6
season	16.6	15.6		101.3	97.0
opponent	15.9	16.7		94.8	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	17.5	17.3	16.5	16.9
PHI	16.4	13.0	16.2	17.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	81	80	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.11	18	-7	25	16.5	21.1	-4.64	16.1	9.9	6.23
Tim Hardaway	81	79	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.08	18	-7	25	16.7	19.2	-2.54	15.8	13.6	2.16
Terry Porter	65	61	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.15	9	2	7	17.4	15.6	1.85	14.9	17.3	-2.46
Alonzo Mourning	65	63	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	2	7	16.4	18.3	-1.86	15.2	16.6	-1.38
Clar. Weatherspoon	44	42	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.11	3	8	-5	19.2	14.8	4.35	14.8	16.3	-1.46
P.J. Brown	63	61	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	8	-5	16.0	19.0	-3.01	16.1	14.3	1.82
Rex Walters	31	31	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	9	-7	15.4	17.8	-2.41	17.0	14.8	2.25
Mark Strickland	13	12	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.15	-4	15	-19	20.8	16.3	4.48	15.7	15.6	0.09
Blue Edwards	7	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.03	-3	14	-17	19.3	16.7	2.55	9.8	16.0	-6.18

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rick Mahorn	12	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-10	9	12.9	16.0	-3.10	19.8	16.5	3.31
Harvey Grant	27	26	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.16	2	-13	15	17.2	14.9	2.32	17.8	16.6	1.28
Matt Geiger	39	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-11	11	15.0	16.1	-1.06	18.2	15.9	2.32
Larry Hughes	34	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-9	7	15.1	15.9	-0.72	17.6	16.5	1.04
Tim Thomas	16	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-8	5	16.7	15.3	1.35	18.3	16.7	1.68
Aaron McKie	24	26	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	-2	-7	15.0	15.8	-0.75	16.3	17.2	-0.93
Allen Iverson	75	80	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.18	-3	-8	5	15.2	17.9	-2.70	16.8	18.1	-1.31
Theo Ratliff	63	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-2	-7	16.0	14.4	1.62	16.5	18.2	-1.80
Eric Snow	65	66	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.04	-17	6	-23	15.7	15.2	0.54	15.9	19.7	-3.84
George Lynch	80	82	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.16	-13	2	-15	15.7	13.7	2.04	16.6	20.4	-3.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.43,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.1,0.22,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 112, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.24,0.33,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.36,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0	93.6%
SAS 75, CLE 72	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.28,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.04,0	93.5%
PHX 103, WAS 87	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	93.4%