NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	123		Excitement	2.2 [1273]		MVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): +12.2%
Boston Celtics	107		Comeback	1.1 [373]		LVP	Jaylen Brown (BOS): -3.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Emmanuel Mudiay	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.00	-0.04	18	73%	0.19	7	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Wilson Chandler	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.13	0.00	0.04	14	67%	0.09	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Gary Harris	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	10	57%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	5	82%	0.04	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	56%	0.03	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	13	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	7	60%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.00	12	67%	-0.01
Malik Beasley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	5	29%	0.00	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Mickey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.04	4	89%	0.02	1	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	13	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	17	39%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Demetrius Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.05	3	80%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.09	-0.00	0.09	17	65%	0.07	4	-0.06	12	92%	0.02
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.07	4	100%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	6	58%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	7	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.5	33.2	14.5	22.4	2.5	28.3	131.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.4%

DEN +4.8%

DEN +5.9%

DEN +2.0%

DEN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	15.0	12.8	14.8	117.1	104.9	107.7
season	14.4	14.7		111.6	110.1
opponent	14.9	14.5		108.3	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	12.8	16.2	18.9	15.0
BOS	12.5	12.4	13.8	12.4	12.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	58	58	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.33	26	-10	36	13.2	17.3	-4.09	12.4	13.2	-0.80
Emmanuel Mudiay	85	85	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.10	18	-2	20	14.4	17.6	-3.25	12.8	12.5	0.29
Danilo Gallinari	89	88	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.15	19	-3	22	14.9	15.6	-0.71	12.9	12.2	0.65
Jameer Nelson	77	74	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.00	12	4	8	15.9	12.6	3.34	12.5	13.5	-1.00
Nikola Jokic	47	45	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.08	6	10	-4	15.7	14.4	1.28	13.9	11.9	2.03
Kenneth Faried	49	47	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	9	-2	16.9	13.4	3.45	12.5	13.0	-0.45
Jusuf Nurkic	34	32	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	11	-6	12.0	16.5	-4.42	12.8	12.7	0.10
Gary Harris	46	45	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	17	-18	15.3	14.8	0.51	13.4	12.3	1.04
Jamal Murray	28	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.13	-2	18	-20	17.1	14.2	2.90	13.1	12.7	0.40
Malik Beasley	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	21	-26	15.5	15.0	0.51	8.8	13.0	-4.19
Juan Hernangomez	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	21	-26	15.5	15.0	0.51	8.8	13.0	-4.19

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Demetrius Jackson	23	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.11	3	-19	22	11.7	13.1	-1.39	17.2	14.4	2.81
James Young	17	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.19	5	-21	26	12.1	12.9	-0.79	17.3	14.6	2.71
Gerald Green	18	22	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-14	12	13.3	12.7	0.61	17.0	14.5	2.56
Jordan Mickey	35	38	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-19	22	12.5	12.9	-0.44	17.2	13.8	3.39
Terry Rozier	33	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-12	8	12.9	12.7	0.15	15.5	14.8	0.77
Amir Johnson	35	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	-9	2	12.8	12.8	-0.00	14.0	15.5	-1.51
Marcus Smart	63	64	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	-9	2	12.0	14.1	-2.11	14.2	16.3	-2.05
Jaylen Brown	42	43	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-10	4	13.6	12.2	1.40	15.6	14.6	0.95
Tyler Zeller	58	58	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	-5	-6	13.2	12.2	0.92	14.3	15.9	-1.54
Jonas Jerebko	43	43	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.27	-20	4	-24	12.3	13.2	-0.90	12.9	16.5	-3.66
Avery Bradley	69	73	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	-2	-12	13.3	11.6	1.68	15.5	13.8	1.74
Isaiah Thomas	74	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.18	-20	4	-24	12.9	12.4	0.58	14.0	17.6	-3.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 105, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%
CLE 101, NYK 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%
GSW 109, SEA 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.8%