NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	87		Excitement	5.8 [672]		MVP	Terrence Ross (TOR): +16.0%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	2.6 [868]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -21.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Johnson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.00	-0.01	10	73%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.04	0.02	8	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rodney McGruder	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	18	54%	0.10	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Luke Babbitt	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Reed	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Dion Waiters	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	0.04	14	57%	0.02	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.10	0.01	18	32%	-0.18	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	15	65%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	26	59%	0.11	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	62%	-0.00	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.00	-0.02	15	39%	0.04	5	-0.13	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	28.5	15.5	25.6	1.8	32.5	129.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +29.6%

TOR +8.7%

TOR +9.3%

MIA -0.8%

TOR +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	14.8	92.6	100.0	107.7
season	15.4	15.2		106.7	110.0
opponent	14.9	14.5		106.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	15.7	14.8	15.0	15.3
TOR	16.2	15.0	14.1	15.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	73	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.22	4	-13	17	14.7	17.3	-2.55	15.7	12.5	3.20
Josh Richardson	24	25	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	-5	1	15.5	15.3	0.20	12.6	15.9	-3.31
Justise Winslow	77	78	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.34	6	-15	21	15.3	15.2	0.16	14.8	15.9	-1.15
Rodney McGruder	11	10	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-2	-5	18.6	14.9	3.77	14.6	15.1	-0.46
Luke Babbitt	50	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-6	3	16.2	14.3	1.95	15.8	14.2	1.52
Goran Dragic	69	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.29	3	-12	15	15.2	15.6	-0.40	16.2	11.8	4.39
Tyler Johnson	62	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-4	-1	13.9	18.1	-4.27	14.4	16.2	-1.83
James Johnson	39	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	1	-11	15.3	15.3	-0.00	14.0	15.7	-1.72
Willie Reed	21	22	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.01	-13	4	-17	17.3	14.7	2.55	12.5	15.7	-3.20
Dion Waiters	44	47	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.00	-16	7	-23	15.5	15.1	0.40	16.0	14.1	1.86

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	81	80	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.25	11	-2	13	15.3	13.6	1.67	15.7	12.9	2.88
Norman Powell	29	28	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	2	5	15.0	15.0	-0.06	15.1	15.4	-0.34
Patrick Patterson	61	61	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	1	7	14.5	15.8	-1.29	14.5	16.9	-2.42
Jonas Valanciunas	51	52	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	6	-3	16.2	13.7	2.49	15.8	14.7	1.16
Terrence Ross	45	45	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.03	7	2	5	13.4	16.4	-3.03	14.5	16.0	-1.49
Jakob Poeltl	45	42	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	3	3	13.7	16.2	-2.49	14.7	15.8	-1.16
DeMar DeRozan	72	70	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.17	-1	10	-11	15.9	12.3	3.57	14.9	16.4	-1.43
DeMarre Carroll	37	36	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	8	-7	15.9	14.4	1.48	17.5	13.9	3.55
Pascal Siakam	30	29	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	9	-9	16.0	14.6	1.39	17.1	14.5	2.60
Cory Joseph	29	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	6	-3	13.4	15.7	-2.24	13.6	16.0	-2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.85,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 102, MIA 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
POR 104, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1	93.7%
WAS 95, MEM 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.5,0.57,0.68,0.75,0.81,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.5%