NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	5.0 [821]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +18.8%
Miami Heat	109		Comeback	2.0 [676]		LVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): -20.1%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.25	-0.00	0.12	17	78%	0.13	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.04
Jodie Meeks	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.02	0.03	8	69%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.14	0.00	0.08	17	74%	0.14	4	-0.08	8	50%	-0.06
Anthony Tolliver	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	35%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Spencer Dinwiddie	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	5	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.20	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.18	-0.03	-0.01	15	28%	-0.10	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.17	0.07	0.05	27	60%	0.22	1	-0.03	13	92%	0.00
James Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.03	0.00	7	80%	0.15	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	7	61%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Henry Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	13	64%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	10	45%	0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.7	30.2	15.5	24.4	2.5	43.2	142.1
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.7%

MIA +5.2%

MIA +12.7%

MIA +2.4%

MIA +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	16.8	15.1	113.3	119.8	104.2
season	15.7	16.0		104.0	102.4
opponent	15.3	15.3		105.4	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.2	15.0	18.3	11.7	15.0
MIA	18.1	15.6	18.6	15.6	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawne Williams	14	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	-1	-5	17.3	14.5	2.75	14.4	17.3	-2.94
Caron Butler	29	29	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-3	-1	18.0	13.5	4.53	17.7	16.4	1.29
Anthony Tolliver	48	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-5	3	16.3	13.5	2.84	18.2	15.2	2.92
Joel Anthony	17	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.06	-8	1	-9	16.4	14.6	1.71	14.7	17.3	-2.63
Reggie Jackson	68	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-10	13	14.4	16.7	-2.33	17.4	15.2	2.14
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	77	77	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.37	4	-11	15	14.5	17.9	-3.46	17.3	14.5	2.77
Jodie Meeks	55	56	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-4	1	13.4	17.4	-3.98	16.1	18.0	-1.83
Spencer Dinwiddie	22	22	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.01	-10	3	-13	16.7	14.4	2.33	15.2	17.4	-2.14
Andre Drummond	73	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-8	9	14.6	16.4	-1.71	17.3	14.7	2.63
Tayshaun Prince	47	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	3	-13	13.7	16.4	-2.74	15.8	18.0	-2.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Ennis	41	40	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.15	16	-9	25	17.9	16.0	1.83	18.2	12.4	5.82
Henry Walker	65	66	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.21	11	-4	15	16.0	19.0	-3.07	15.3	14.0	1.38
Dwyane Wade	70	70	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.20	7	0	7	16.7	17.3	-0.57	14.2	17.8	-3.64
Mario Chalmers	61	59	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	6	-5	16.2	18.2	-1.97	13.9	16.9	-2.95
Udonis Haslem	68	66	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.21	1	6	-5	17.3	15.6	1.66	14.4	16.6	-2.26
Goran Dragic	67	66	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.29	-3	10	-13	17.3	15.5	1.88	14.5	16.4	-1.92
Michael Beasley	14	14	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	3	1	13.1	17.5	-4.38	17.0	14.6	2.41
Tyler Johnson	35	36	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.14	-3	10	-13	17.1	16.7	0.44	15.4	14.7	0.70
Luol Deng	34	33	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	6	-5	18.2	16.1	2.12	14.8	15.1	-0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 87, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.85,0.62,0.69,0.75,0.83,0.91,0.86,0.81,0.86,0.95,0.95,0.98,1,1	94.4%
CHA 115, LAL 129	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.78,0.69,0.77,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
POR 104, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1	94.3%