NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	98		Excitement	5.0 [834]		MVP	Mario Hezonja (ORL): +20.7%
Orlando Magic	107		Comeback	1.0 [1100]		LVP	Jabari Parker (MIL): -11.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Miles Plumlee	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.00	0.05	15	64%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	7	69%	0.05	5	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Khris Middleton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	11	63%	0.11	6	-0.12	5	100%	0.04
Tyler Ennis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	6	83%	0.07	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Rashad Vaughn	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	21%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Henson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	5	42%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Jabari Parker	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.09	-0.02	17	47%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.11	0.09	-0.00	11	79%	0.25	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.19	-0.02	0.02	13	85%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.01	11	61%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devyn Marble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	41%	0.01	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	11	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	13	46%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.04	8	42%	-0.00	4	-0.08	10	50%	-0.03
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.7	26.2	15.5	23.4	1.7	28.0	119.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +21.9%

MIL -3.6%

ORL +0.9%

ORL +32.2%

MIL -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	14.5	14.9	101.0	110.3	105.1
season	14.8	14.6		102.8	103.6
opponent	14.9	15.3		105.2	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.1	13.6	14.9	14.7	15.2
ORL	14.0	14.2	15.1	14.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greivis Vasquez	33	31	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-13	17	15.9	14.8	1.14	15.7	13.9	1.82
John Henson	31	29	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-11	13	14.8	15.4	-0.56	15.2	14.2	1.00
Miles Plumlee	43	41	-0.10	-0.41	0.31	-0.18	3	-12	15	15.2	15.2	-0.04	15.0	14.2	0.81
Tyler Ennis	45	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.32	4	-13	17	14.7	15.6	-0.93	14.8	14.2	0.65
Rashad Vaughn	56	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-9	0	-9	15.7	14.4	1.29	14.2	14.9	-0.67
Jabari Parker	73	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	-1	-7	15.2	15.2	-0.03	14.3	15.0	-0.71
Greg Monroe	54	56	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	3	-15	15.2	15.2	0.04	14.2	15.0	-0.81
Giannis Antetokounmpo	75	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.07	-14	5	-19	15.2	15.0	0.18	14.3	15.3	-1.05
Khris Middleton	75	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.05	-15	6	-21	14.9	16.3	-1.41	14.1	15.7	-1.62

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	77	78	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.06	21	-12	33	13.6	17.8	-4.15	15.1	15.6	-0.49
Elfrid Payton	65	67	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.01	22	-13	35	13.1	17.3	-4.14	14.8	16.0	-1.13
Ersan Ilyasova	76	74	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.16	13	-4	17	14.0	16.3	-2.27	15.3	14.9	0.36
Dewayne Dedmon	38	38	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.07	16	-7	23	13.2	15.4	-2.17	16.2	14.5	1.69
Mario Hezonja	80	81	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	1	7	14.4	14.8	-0.31	15.1	15.4	-0.23
Jason Smith	59	59	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.30	-7	16	-23	15.4	13.2	2.17	14.5	16.2	-1.69
Andrew Nicholson	21	23	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.08	-4	13	-17	16.3	14.0	2.27	14.9	15.3	-0.36
Devyn Marble	37	35	-0.04	0.55	-0.59	0.28	-11	20	-31	16.4	13.3	3.07	15.5	15.0	0.47
CJ Watson	32	30	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.23	-13	22	-35	17.3	13.1	4.14	16.0	14.8	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.76,0.87,0.97,0.78,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 58, BOS 77	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.84,0.89,0.93,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.6%
DET 84, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.86,0.81,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
DAL 120, GSW 128	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.83,0.86,0.78,0.98,0.99,1	94.4%