NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	90		Excitement	7.2 [408]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (CHI): +25.8%
Chicago Bulls	100		Comeback	1.3 [1096]		LVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): -21.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	0.00	15	62%	0.20	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jabari Parker	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.02	17	46%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Miles Plumlee	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Rashad Vaughn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	0.02	14	37%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.06	0.03	13	43%	-0.05	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.13	-0.09	0.00	21	39%	-0.12	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.17	0.09	0.00	9	100%	0.29	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	11	67%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.04	-0.00	8	71%	0.13	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Nikola Mirotic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	9	61%	0.12	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Bobby Portis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	18	58%	0.13	6	-0.20	2	100%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	14	36%	-0.08	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	27.6	17.7	29.1	2.4	29.6	130.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +77.3%

MIL -2.5%

MIL -13.2%

MIL -18.0%

CHI +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	14.9	94.7	105.3	105.1
season	14.8	14.8		102.8	103.7
opponent	14.9	15.3		105.1	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.4	15.6	13.6	17.1	15.6
CHI	14.3	12.6	15.2	17.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.J. Mayo	48	49	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.22	10	-20	30	15.7	15.5	0.24	16.5	12.8	3.73
Rashad Vaughn	21	20	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-14	18	15.2	15.7	-0.54	14.0	14.9	-0.89
Greg Monroe	56	56	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.23	4	-14	18	15.5	15.7	-0.23	15.6	13.5	2.07
Jabari Parker	77	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	-2	-6	15.6	15.4	0.20	14.4	15.9	-1.49
Miles Plumlee	39	39	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.02	-14	4	-18	15.7	15.5	0.23	13.5	15.6	-2.07
Jerryd Bayless	76	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	-2	-6	15.4	16.5	-1.14	14.4	15.9	-1.49
Khris Middleton	86	86	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.09	-20	10	-30	15.6	15.8	-0.18	14.5	16.3	-1.80
Giannis Antetokounmpo	72	73	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.16	-18	8	-26	15.9	14.8	1.09	14.5	15.4	-0.86

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	76	77	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.10	20	-10	30	14.8	14.4	0.42	15.8	14.8	1.03
Mike Dunleavy	68	68	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.19	14	-4	18	15.0	14.0	0.93	16.1	14.3	1.78
E'Twaun Moore	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-1	12	15.0	14.0	0.96	15.6	15.8	-0.20
Pau Gasol	71	71	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-5	20	14.1	16.5	-2.40	15.0	17.3	-2.25
Taj Gibson	70	69	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	5	0	15.7	11.9	3.83	16.4	13.5	2.85
Nikola Mirotic	40	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	0	10	13.8	15.4	-1.56	15.4	15.8	-0.37
Justin Holiday	34	34	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	14	-18	14.7	14.7	0.00	15.2	15.8	-0.63
Aaron Brooks	9	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.10	-7	17	-24	12.7	14.9	-2.25	17.9	15.4	2.47
Doug McDermott	28	28	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.00	-4	14	-18	13.9	15.1	-1.20	13.8	16.4	-2.54
Bobby Portis	9	8	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	20	-30	15.7	14.6	1.06	15.0	15.7	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.71,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.72,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.83,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.61,0.89,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, DAL 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.69,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.85,0.81,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.69,0.86,0.9,0.99,1	93.2%
NYK 95, DEN 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.84,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.61,0.85,0.97,0.98,1	92.5%
POR 85, UTA 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.76,0.85,0.84,0.75,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.73,0.53,0.78,0.96,0.98,1	92.4%