NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	114		Excitement	12.6 [9]		MVP	D.J. Augustin (DEN): +91.8%
Denver Nuggets	116		Comeback	37.5 [19]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -30.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0.63	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.32,0.62,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.63	0.05	0.57	-0.01	10	77%	0.72	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.35	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.23	0.12	-0.00	18	77%	0.37	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,0.2	-0.01	0.21	-0.00	13	41%	0.22	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.09
David Lee	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.02	0.00	9	82%	0.19	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	4	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	13	58%	0.12	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Salah Mejri	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	12	39%	-0.01	2	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02
Raymond Felton	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	8	17%	-0.17	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.92	0.92	0.01	0.91	-0.00	10	50%	0.97	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.45	0.45	0.11	0.35	0.01	18	60%	0.45	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.00	13	59%	0.18	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.05	0.02	14	57%	0.11	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.03
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	0.01	11	48%	0.05	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
JaKarr Sampson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Joffrey Lauvergne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Axel Toupane	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.3	-0.30	-0.09	-0.22	-0.01	21	36%	-0.25	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.3	1.7	35.1	15.8	25.2	1.6	33.0	1.8	19.8	157.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -10.3%

DEN +10.4%

DEN +35.8%

DEN +9.2%

DEN +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.9	15.2	14.9	107.5	110.5	105.1
season	15.5	14.9		105.0	104.3
opponent	14.9	14.7		107.8	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	13.6	13.7	15.6	17.3	14.4	14.9
DEN	15.2	14.6	15.7	14.0	18.9	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Harris	34	34	0.74	-1.24	1.97	0.12	21	-23	44	15.0	14.9	0.07	17.0	14.4	2.68
Raymond Felton	50	49	0.27	-0.77	1.04	-0.14	14	-16	30	14.1	15.6	-1.52	15.6	14.9	0.74
Jose Juan Barea	48	48	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.23	-1	-1	0	16.3	13.8	2.50	14.6	15.7	-1.13
Charlie Villanueva	3	3	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-4	6	14.0	15.0	-0.95	18.7	15.1	3.55
Salah Mejri	3	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	1	-4	12.3	15.0	-2.67	12.0	15.3	-3.31
Zaza Pachulia	19	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	3	-8	16.5	14.6	1.89	15.8	15.1	0.67
Dirk Nowitzki	72	70	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.19	1	-3	4	15.4	13.9	1.58	15.6	14.5	1.06
David Lee	52	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.29	1	-3	4	13.4	16.4	-3.02	15.1	15.4	-0.31
Chandler Parsons	77	78	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.53	-11	9	-20	14.7	15.6	-0.91	14.8	16.3	-1.45
Wesley Matthews	83	82	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.57	-10	8	-18	14.6	16.1	-1.48	14.9	16.4	-1.50
Deron Williams	80	80	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.45	-17	15	-32	15.5	13.1	2.45	14.5	17.4	-2.91

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emmanuel Mudiay	80	81	1.05	-0.55	1.61	0.52	18	-16	34	14.5	17.4	-2.91	15.0	14.8	0.11
Gary Harris	87	89	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.50	14	-12	26	14.8	17.1	-2.28	14.6	16.9	-2.33
Nikola Jokic	44	45	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.34	9	-7	16	14.5	15.7	-1.16	14.0	15.6	-1.68
Kenneth Faried	73	73	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.09	17	-15	32	14.9	15.9	-1.03	15.5	13.6	1.87
D.J. Augustin	52	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.52	-7	9	-16	16.0	14.5	1.47	15.5	14.4	1.09
Will Barton	57	57	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.48	-13	15	-28	16.1	14.1	1.98	15.0	14.8	0.16
JaKarr Sampson	48	48	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	0	2	14.8	15.6	-0.79	14.6	15.2	-0.59
Mike Miller	17	19	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.06	-6	8	-14	15.4	15.2	0.23	13.6	15.2	-1.64
Joffrey Lauvergne	26	28	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	0.02	-9	11	-20	16.4	14.8	1.60	14.0	15.3	-1.26
Darrell Arthur	16	15	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.21	-4	6	-10	15.3	15.2	0.11	17.7	14.5	3.19
Axel Toupane	25	24	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.07	-11	13	-24	16.7	14.8	1.92	15.3	14.8	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.34,0.14,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.32,0.63,0.32,0.28,0.54,0.31,0.55,0.22,0.18,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 87, CLE 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.52,0.36,0.32,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.33,0.28,1	88.1%
MIN 116, LAC 120	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.63,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.22,0.02,0.54,0.38,0.45,0.32,0.41,1	88.1%
LAC 109, CHI 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.53,0.71,0.45,0.27,0.54,0.39,0.22,0.32,0.58,1	87.6%