NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	111		Excitement	7.5 [354]		MVP	Anthony Davis (NOP): +58.9%
Detroit Pistons	106		Comeback	1.8 [343]		LVP	Ryan Anderson (NOP): -18.9%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0.59	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.41,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59	0.39	0.22	0.03	34	76%	0.66	2	-0.07	10	90%	0.05
Bryce Dejean-Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	14	54%	0.13	5	-0.19	9	89%	0.01
Toney Douglas	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	4	37%	0.02	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	0.01	12	21%	-0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.22	0.11	0.01	20	71%	0.35	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.05
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.04	0.02	13	58%	0.03	0	0.00	10	30%	-0.13
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Darrun Hilliard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	17	43%	-0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.02	15	40%	-0.07	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	7	14%	-0.10	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.4	30.8	15.6	27.0	1.8	37.3	143.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +36.2%

NOP +12.6%

NOP +23.1%

DET -15.8%

DET -6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DET	NBA	NOP	DET	NBA
this game	14.1	14.2	14.9	109.9	103.9	105.1
season	14.3	15.0		104.3	104.9
opponent	15.1	15.0		105.0	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.0	15.2	15.3	12.1	14.1
DET	14.2	12.0	15.3	15.6	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Davis	93	92	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.41	17	-12	29	13.9	16.4	-2.43	14.0	16.2	-2.18
Jrue Holiday	68	68	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	1	3	13.4	15.6	-2.18	15.1	12.5	2.56
Norris Cole	45	47	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.25	2	3	-1	14.0	14.3	-0.33	13.7	14.7	-1.07
Alonzo Gee	56	58	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	5	-5	13.8	14.5	-0.67	14.1	14.4	-0.27
Ryan Anderson	52	53	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.19	0	5	-5	13.9	14.3	-0.40	14.4	14.0	0.37
Bryce Dejean-Jones	41	42	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	1	3	15.7	13.1	2.64	13.7	14.6	-0.93
Alexis Ajinca	20	21	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	4	-3	14.5	14.0	0.45	15.5	13.9	1.62
Toney Douglas	51	49	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	6	-7	13.5	14.8	-1.39	13.9	14.5	-0.57
Omer Asik	15	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	4	-3	14.9	14.0	0.86	13.0	14.5	-1.47
Kendrick Perkins	15	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	5	-5	16.5	13.7	2.73	14.1	14.3	-0.19
Dante Cunningham	49	50	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	8	-11	14.5	13.8	0.76	14.6	13.9	0.72

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	27	27	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.03	2	-7	9	14.2	14.2	-0.02	13.9	14.2	-0.29
Darrun Hilliard	24	24	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-6	7	14.7	14.1	0.62	13.8	14.2	-0.46
Stanley Johnson	46	44	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-6	7	14.3	14.2	0.05	14.8	13.6	1.24
Anthony Tolliver	18	17	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.04	-3	-2	-1	13.2	14.5	-1.23	14.2	14.1	0.12
Steve Blake	36	35	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-1	-3	14.1	14.3	-0.15	14.3	14.0	0.27
Reggie Jackson	66	66	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.30	-1	-4	3	14.3	14.1	0.15	14.0	14.3	-0.27
Marcus Morris	70	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-2	-1	14.5	13.7	0.75	14.1	14.2	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	73	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	2	-9	14.0	14.8	-0.73	14.2	13.9	0.34
Tobias Harris	75	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.42	-4	-1	-3	14.3	14.1	0.22	13.7	15.4	-1.62
Andre Drummond	75	74	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.39	-7	2	-9	14.2	14.2	0.02	14.2	13.9	0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 97, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.01,0.04,0	93.1%
DET 98, DEN 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.35,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.04,0	92.6%
DEN 95, SAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.33,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.27,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0	92.5%