NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	97		Excitement	8.2 [214]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +10.8%
Indiana Pacers	94		Comeback	1.6 [651]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -27.9%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	11	55%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	6	64%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Samaki Walker	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	59%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Rick Fox	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	7	43%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	9	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.25,-0.27,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	31	49%	0.01	7	-0.18	10	100%	0.09
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	11	63%	-0.01	6	-0.19	8	62%	-0.08

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	12	52%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	4	81%	0.07	1	-0.04	8	75%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.02	12	67%	0.09	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	22	49%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.12	-0.11	0.02	19	44%	-0.16	2	-0.09	14	79%	0.02
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.16	-0.11	0.01	11	9%	-0.26	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	28.6	15.4	29.6	2.6	30.2	133.0
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +43.6%

LAL +1.1%

IND -2.1%

LAL +6.8%

LAL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	IND	NBA	LAL	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	14.6	15.5	103.2	100.0	101.6
season	15.4	15.4		105.0	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.1		99.2	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	16.0	14.1	16.1	18.5	16.0
IND	15.3	13.0	13.9	16.7	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	58	57	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.41	4	-1	5	16.2	15.7	0.48	15.1	13.9	1.20
Kobe Bryant	82	83	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	0	3	15.7	18.5	-2.84	14.5	15.6	-1.15
Shaquille O'Neal	77	78	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.35	3	0	3	16.1	15.8	0.24	14.8	13.7	1.04
Derek Fisher	74	73	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.39	1	2	-1	15.7	17.3	-1.62	14.6	14.8	-0.25
Devean George	43	43	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.44	-2	5	-7	16.2	15.9	0.35	15.3	14.0	1.31
Brian Shaw	19	18	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.02	5	-2	7	18.2	15.5	2.68	15.5	14.4	1.09
Rick Fox	51	51	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	-2	7	15.9	16.2	-0.35	14.0	15.3	-1.31
Slava Medvedenko	16	16	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	4	-5	14.6	16.3	-1.76	11.6	15.2	-3.61
Kareem Rush	13	14	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	6	-9	17.2	15.8	1.31	14.6	14.6	-0.05
Samaki Walker	37	37	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.04	0	3	-3	16.3	15.9	0.41	14.8	14.5	0.32

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	71	71	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-8	13	13.9	17.0	-3.10	16.2	15.5	0.72
Erick Strickland	42	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.24	3	-6	9	14.6	14.6	0.05	16.3	15.8	0.52
Ron Mercer	31	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	1	-5	15.0	14.4	0.57	15.8	16.1	-0.27
Jeff Foster	23	23	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	1	-5	17.0	13.8	3.15	13.8	16.7	-2.96
Reggie Miller	63	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-4	5	14.4	15.0	-0.57	16.1	15.8	0.27
Austin Croshere	32	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	5	-13	15.9	14.0	1.91	15.6	16.2	-0.61
Al Harrington	73	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.40	3	-6	9	14.0	16.6	-2.58	16.5	14.5	1.99
Jamaal Tinsley	52	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.17	-6	3	-9	14.6	14.6	-0.05	15.8	16.3	-0.52
Jermaine O'Neal	83	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	2	-7	14.6	14.5	0.08	16.2	14.1	2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.01,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 109, MEM 107	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.21,0.29,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.04,0	94.0%
ATL 85, IND 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.22,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.09,0	93.4%
MIL 91, MIA 82	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.55,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.16,0.02,0	93.3%