NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	110		Excitement	6.0 [628]		MVP	Joffrey Lauvergne (DEN): +14.0%
Sacramento Kings	116		Comeback	1.1 [945]		LVP	Emmanuel Mudiay (DEN): -25.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joffrey Lauvergne	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.03	14	73%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	-0.02	0.04	11	77%	0.15	3	-0.06	13	92%	0.04
Gary Harris	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	11	58%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	6	57%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.04	0.04	13	59%	0.03	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.03
Darrell Arthur	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	7	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25	-0.18	-0.05	0.02	14	29%	-0.13	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.13	-0.01	-0.00	20	67%	0.23	6	-0.10	15	80%	0.03
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	-0.00	5	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.02	16	60%	0.13	4	-0.06	8	75%	0.01
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	15	53%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	16	63%	0.13	4	-0.11	6	67%	-0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.8	1.7	29.5	15.4	30.4	2.5	38.6	148.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +29.6%

SAC +10.3%

SAC +6.9%

SAC +2.2%

SAC +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	12.8	13.1	14.9	99.1	104.5	105.1
season	14.9	13.9		104.3	104.8
opponent	14.6	14.9		107.1	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.9	10.8	14.3	11.7	12.8
SAC	13.3	12.4	12.5	14.5	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	9	9	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	-3	0	14.3	12.7	1.66	13.8	13.1	0.70
Darrell Arthur	40	39	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.18	3	-9	12	12.8	12.8	-0.06	13.2	13.1	0.07
Jusuf Nurkic	31	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-2	-2	14.8	12.0	2.72	11.7	13.7	-1.95
D.J. Augustin	42	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.08	-2	-4	2	13.3	12.5	0.84	13.6	12.8	0.80
Kenneth Faried	54	54	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.01	-9	3	-12	13.3	12.4	0.95	12.4	13.8	-1.35
Joffrey Lauvergne	57	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.34	3	-9	12	12.4	13.3	-0.95	13.8	12.4	1.35
Will Barton	73	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.35	0	-6	6	12.3	13.9	-1.61	13.3	12.7	0.61
Gary Harris	94	93	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.25	-5	-1	-4	12.3	15.6	-3.28	13.2	13.1	0.09
Emmanuel Mudiay	72	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.23	-6	0	-6	12.4	13.5	-1.08	12.8	13.7	-0.88
Danilo Gallinari	83	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	1	-8	13.0	12.1	0.94	13.4	12.3	1.06

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	95	96	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-5	16	13.0	14.1	-1.16	12.7	13.7	-1.07
Darren Collison	77	77	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.31	6	0	6	13.2	13.0	0.15	12.5	13.5	-0.95
Rajon Rondo	90	91	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	-1	8	13.0	13.6	-0.60	12.9	12.2	0.75
DeMarcus Cousins	90	91	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	2	2	13.4	12.1	1.22	12.3	15.3	-3.10
Ben McLemore	58	58	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.24	1	5	-4	12.6	13.8	-1.22	12.3	13.4	-1.08
James Anderson	55	54	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	6	-6	13.9	12.4	1.57	12.3	13.3	-1.00
Kosta Koufos	23	23	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	5	-4	11.3	13.6	-2.31	14.2	12.5	1.72
Quincy Acy	34	34	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	4	-2	12.8	13.3	-0.53	13.9	12.3	1.54
Seth Curry	3	3	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	4	-2	12.7	13.1	-0.48	11.0	12.9	-1.86
Willie Cauley-Stein	30	28	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.15	-4	10	-14	14.7	12.5	2.19	15.3	12.0	3.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.74,0.71,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 92, ATL 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.96,0.99,1	95.5%
SAC 93, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.89,0.86,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.79,0.83,0.94,0.99,1	95.0%
BKN 107, CHA 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.83,0.77,0.82,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.92,0.77,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	94.8%