NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	93		Excitement	6.1 [573]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +9.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	100		Comeback	1.1 [981]		LVP	Billy Owens (SAC): -22.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	25	56%	0.09	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
Kevin Gamble	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.03	0.01	12	62%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Devin Gray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Duane Causwell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	5	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Hurley	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.03	-0.04	6	37%	-0.03	5	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Billy Owens	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	0.01	17	36%	-0.15	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.01	10	70%	0.10	0	0.00	10	90%	0.02
Byron Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	10	65%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.01	0.03	7	63%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	13	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	59%	0.07	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	-0.01	-0.04	19	43%	-0.06	3	-0.07	13	62%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.5	30.2	16.6	30.1	1.7	30.2	140.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +10.7%

LAL +11.1%

LAL +9.5%

LAL +9.3%

LAL +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	LAL	NBA	SAC	LAL	NBA
this game	15.0	16.5	15.6	102.2	108.7	104.4
season	15.4	15.3		102.4	105.8
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.5	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	17.6	14.6	12.9	15.5	15.0
LAL	19.3	13.1	17.9	16.4	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duane Causwell	30	31	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.31	8	-15	23	15.7	14.6	1.09	16.9	16.2	0.71
Corliss Williamson	70	69	-0.10	-0.39	0.29	-0.22	4	-11	15	15.0	15.1	-0.12	17.2	14.2	3.06
Billy Owens	76	76	-0.26	-0.23	-0.03	-0.23	-1	-6	5	14.6	17.0	-2.39	16.7	15.4	1.25
Devin Gray	18	19	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	7	-21	15.4	14.9	0.55	12.7	17.5	-4.77
Kevin Gamble	54	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-4	1	14.2	16.2	-1.96	15.8	17.5	-1.71
Olden Polynice	61	61	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	8	-23	14.6	15.7	-1.09	16.2	16.9	-0.71
Bobby Hurley	62	64	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	0	-7	15.8	13.3	2.43	17.2	14.9	2.31
Mitch Richmond	84	86	-0.47	-0.02	-0.45	-0.26	-7	0	-7	15.2	12.3	2.94	16.4	17.2	-0.75

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elden Campbell	83	82	0.48	0.01	0.46	0.27	7	0	7	16.7	14.6	2.12	15.2	13.1	2.10
Kobe Bryant	46	44	0.42	0.07	0.35	0.13	10	-3	13	14.7	18.2	-3.46	14.9	15.1	-0.22
Travis Knight	49	50	0.35	0.14	0.21	0.29	2	5	-3	16.0	17.0	-0.96	14.6	15.4	-0.80
Eddie Jones	70	70	0.30	0.19	0.11	0.27	1	6	-5	17.4	13.4	4.02	14.9	15.3	-0.43
Byron Scott	42	41	0.29	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	0	7	13.1	19.3	-6.25	14.2	15.6	-1.42
Nick Van Exel	47	46	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.31	-2	9	-11	18.2	14.6	3.61	17.1	12.9	4.22
Derek Fisher	46	46	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	0	7	14.3	18.6	-4.24	12.9	17.2	-4.31
Sean Rooks	15	16	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	2	3	15.1	16.7	-1.67	13.2	15.4	-2.20
Jerome Kersey	35	34	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.00	3	4	-1	19.0	14.9	4.09	16.7	14.0	2.77
Corie Blount	27	26	-0.08	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	12	-17	20.4	14.8	5.58	15.7	14.7	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.67,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.94,0.89,0.86,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.79,0.83,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 110, SAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.74,0.71,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.96,1,1	95.0%
CHI 92, ATL 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.96,0.99,1	94.4%
PHX 91, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%