NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	117		Excitement	9.1 [141]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +33.5%
Atlanta Hawks	110		Comeback	16.0 [13]		LVP	Victor Oladipo (ORL): -20.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Hezonja	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.17,-0.13,-0.13,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23	-0.03	0.25	-0.01	14	50%	0.45	3	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.18	0.16	0.04	0.01	16	70%	0.20	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	8	63%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Jason Smith	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	11	70%	0.09	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.00	15	59%	0.05	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.10
Dewayne Dedmon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Napier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.13	-0.02	12	32%	-0.14	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.20	0.15	0.02	18	71%	0.34	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.09	0.09	0.15	-0.05	0.01	8	100%	0.19	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	9	32%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.02,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	18	52%	0.13	6	-0.17	6	50%	-0.13
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.12	-0.03	18	49%	0.01	3	-0.11	7	57%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.6	1.8	29.4	15.4	21.4	2.6	36.0	1.6	19.2	151.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +16.1%

ORL +4.5%

ORL +14.4%

ORL +5.0%

ORL +9.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	14.3	15.0	14.9	106.4	102.8	105.1
season	14.6	14.2		103.6	104.1
opponent	15.1	14.9		100.3	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	13.8	14.2	14.9	14.9	13.3	14.3
ATL	16.3	14.6	12.8	15.1	18.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Hezonja	64	65	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.19	21	-14	35	13.9	15.0	-1.12	16.0	13.5	2.50
Aaron Gordon	62	58	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	-3	13	13.8	15.0	-1.16	15.1	14.8	0.32
Nikola Vucevic	87	85	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.41	2	5	-3	15.2	11.1	4.12	15.1	14.6	0.48
Evan Fournier	86	85	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	8	-9	14.8	12.7	2.15	15.0	15.0	-0.04
Jason Smith	48	47	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.09	13	-6	19	13.9	14.7	-0.80	13.8	15.9	-2.15
Elfrid Payton	79	76	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	6	-5	14.1	15.0	-0.87	14.3	16.6	-2.31
Dewayne Dedmon	12	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	8	-9	14.0	14.4	-0.39	16.4	14.8	1.63
Shabazz Napier	25	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	8	-9	14.3	14.4	-0.03	16.6	14.5	2.18
Channing Frye	10	11	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.10	-10	17	-27	14.0	14.4	-0.38	17.1	14.7	2.36
Victor Oladipo	67	62	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.16	-6	13	-19	14.4	14.2	0.22	13.6	16.9	-3.35

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Muscala	27	28	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.12	1	-8	9	15.4	14.8	0.53	14.2	14.4	-0.22
Jeff Teague	68	72	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.27	9	-16	25	15.0	14.9	0.08	14.6	13.9	0.73
Dennis Schroder	38	38	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.31	-13	6	-19	15.2	14.8	0.41	13.9	14.6	-0.73
Tim Hardaway Jr.	13	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.19	-10	3	-13	16.1	14.8	1.26	11.4	14.7	-3.36
Mike Scott	24	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.08	-7	0	-7	14.2	15.2	-0.93	14.0	14.4	-0.45
Kyle Korver	72	76	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.63	14	-21	35	14.5	15.9	-1.40	14.6	13.8	0.80
Kent Bazemore	82	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-7	7	15.2	14.2	1.01	14.6	13.4	1.19
Paul Millsap	83	85	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-7	7	15.2	14.2	0.93	14.4	14.0	0.45
Al Horford	80	82	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.42	-8	1	-9	14.8	15.4	-0.53	14.4	14.2	0.22
Thabo Sefolosha	48	48	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.14	-21	14	-35	14.7	15.2	-0.48	14.2	14.4	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.45,0.68,0.77,0.46,0.26,0.11,0.16,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 126, CHA 124	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.91,0.85,0.79,0.61,0.61,0.38,0.54,0.78,0.84,0.5,0.32,0.15,0.16,0.08,0	90.1%
PHI 102, CLE 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.15,0	89.3%
CLE 113, TOR 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.81,0.79,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.78,0.91,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.54,0.69,0.84,0.5,0.38,0.21,0.09,0.08,0	89.2%