NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	10.2 [61]		MVP	Avery Bradley (BOS): +80.1%
Cleveland Cavaliers	103		Comeback	713.3 [1]		LVP	Jae Crowder (BOS): -13.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Bradley	0.80	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.8	0.03	0.77	-0.00	12	58%	0.85	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	10	80%	0.22	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11	-0.04	0.13	-0.02	11	44%	0.14	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.10
Amir Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.02	16	53%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.03
Jonas Jerebko	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Smart	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.21,-0.1,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	19	45%	0.00	4	-0.13	11	100%	0.11
Jae Crowder	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	9	17%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.08,-0.13,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,0,0.2,0.19	0.19	-0.06	0.23	-0.02	23	48%	0.35	6	-0.16	17	71%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.02	15	62%	0.19	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	40%	0.00	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.11
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	6	29%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	6	47%	-0.01	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	15	53%	-0.00	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.0	27.2	14.7	28.3	2.3	46.5	147.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +50.9%

BOS +18.3%

CLE -15.8%

BOS +4.3%

CLE -7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CLE	NBA	BOS	CLE	NBA
this game	12.8	16.0	14.9	104.0	103.0	105.1
season	13.9	15.8		104.5	110.3
opponent	14.9	15.0		103.7	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.7	13.0	13.3	12.3	12.8
CLE	15.0	16.5	19.4	13.9	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Turner	70	70	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.63	11	-10	21	11.8	15.1	-3.27	15.5	17.2	-1.73
Jared Sullinger	48	49	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.74	-1	2	-3	14.4	11.3	3.07	16.0	16.0	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	73	74	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.51	3	-2	5	13.5	11.0	2.49	16.1	15.8	0.34
Jae Crowder	64	64	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.47	-2	3	-5	14.0	10.6	3.43	16.7	14.8	1.85
Avery Bradley	71	72	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.35	-5	6	-11	13.3	11.6	1.73	16.9	13.8	3.05
Jonas Jerebko	29	29	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	-3	7	12.1	13.1	-0.95	15.0	16.4	-1.44
Marcus Smart	49	47	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.12	4	-3	7	11.3	14.2	-2.81	14.8	17.1	-2.25
Tyler Zeller	44	44	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.27	5	-4	9	11.2	14.0	-2.73	15.5	16.4	-0.93
Kelly Olynyk	28	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	4	-7	10.0	13.8	-3.81	15.0	16.4	-1.45
Amir Johnson	24	24	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	12	-23	15.4	12.0	3.41	18.6	15.2	3.43

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	68	67	0.40	-0.90	1.30	0.22	6	-7	13	16.5	15.0	1.50	13.7	10.8	2.93
Timofey Mozgov	34	37	0.25	-0.75	1.01	0.02	8	-9	17	17.3	15.4	1.93	12.8	12.8	0.05
Mo Williams	13	15	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.07	-3	2	-5	15.4	16.1	-0.73	9.9	13.3	-3.43
Kevin Love	44	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	1	-3	16.7	15.5	1.22	13.0	12.6	0.31
Iman Shumpert	71	73	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.37	5	-6	11	16.0	16.0	-0.02	12.0	14.9	-2.89
Kyrie Irving	79	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	3	-7	16.1	15.7	0.45	13.1	11.9	1.19
Tristan Thompson	68	67	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.51	-4	3	-7	15.3	17.6	-2.31	13.0	12.2	0.80
LeBron James	82	81	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.55	-7	6	-13	15.4	19.0	-3.63	12.6	13.5	-0.86
Richard Jefferson	41	40	-1.06	0.56	-1.61	-0.94	-4	3	-7	16.0	16.0	-0.03	12.8	12.8	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.1,0.15,0.65,0.87,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 99, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.75,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.32,0.29,0.43,0.73,0	88.4%
CHI 109, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.59,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.77,0.59,0	88.1%
SAS 91, PHX 90	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.72,0.69,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.82,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.59,0	87.8%