NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	109		Excitement	10.1 [75]		MVP	Nikola Mirotic (CHI): +11.3%
Boston Celtics	102		Comeback	6.2 [322]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -54.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Mirotic	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	6	81%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Jimmy Butler	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.25,-0.17,-0.17,-0.05,0.11	-0.00	0.13	0.01	15	52%	0.23	3	-0.12	12	83%	0.14
Aaron Brooks	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.01	12	58%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Snell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	31%	-0.05	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	12	47%	0.03	3	-0.13	8	87%	0.04
Derrick Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.06	-0.15	0.02	18	55%	-0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	-0.24	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24,-0.24	-0.11	-0.12	0.01	19	36%	-0.09	2	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.00	19	56%	0.19	1	-0.10	3	33%	-0.03
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	9	56%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.05	0.01	12	69%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	11	52%	0.07	2	-0.06	9	67%	-0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	3	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Phil Pressey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	11	48%	-0.01	4	-0.11	5	100%	0.03
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	8	22%	-0.09	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.12,-0.18,-0.29,-0.29,-0.55,-0.55	-0.55	-0.12	-0.44	-0.02	13	29%	-0.46	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.22

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.5	27.5	15.4	26.3	1.8	35.2	133.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +15.0%

CHI +40.3%

CHI +4.1%

BOS -6.9%

BOS -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	BOS	NBA	CHI	BOS	NBA
this game	14.9	13.9	15.1	109.0	102.0	104.2
season	15.5	14.3		105.4	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.2		103.3	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.7	14.2	16.0	12.7	14.9
BOS	15.3	14.0	10.7	16.1	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Rose	58	58	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-4	15	15.2	14.5	0.74	13.4	14.7	-1.29
Joakim Noah	74	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.23	10	-3	13	15.4	13.4	1.97	13.9	14.0	-0.11
Kirk Hinrich	56	56	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.38	2	5	-3	14.3	15.6	-1.27	14.9	12.7	2.25
Tony Snell	11	9	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	-3	13	10.5	15.4	-4.97	14.7	13.8	0.82
Pau Gasol	72	72	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	4	-1	15.1	14.4	0.73	13.1	16.1	-3.04
Jimmy Butler	82	85	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.22	1	6	-5	15.6	11.4	4.26	13.6	16.0	-2.45
Aaron Brooks	33	32	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	3	1	13.0	15.8	-2.81	15.3	13.2	2.09
Nikola Mirotic	54	55	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	6	-5	13.9	16.0	-2.11	15.1	12.5	2.56
Doug McDermott	5	4	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.02	-1	8	-9	13.2	15.0	-1.77	14.2	13.9	0.34
Mike Dunleavy	55	56	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.02	-6	13	-19	16.1	13.3	2.81	13.1	15.0	-1.89

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	56	54	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.13	7	-14	21	14.0	13.8	0.26	15.1	14.6	0.58
Tyler Zeller	34	33	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.15	-1	-6	5	14.2	13.8	0.48	16.0	14.3	1.67
Marcus Thornton	33	30	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-9	11	15.8	13.0	2.74	13.8	15.3	-1.50
Kelly Olynyk	39	41	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-6	5	14.3	13.7	0.55	14.6	15.1	-0.50
Evan Turner	51	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-13	19	12.7	15.1	-2.40	14.1	15.7	-1.60
Phil Pressey	31	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-1	-5	14.9	13.5	1.47	12.7	15.9	-3.22
Rajon Rondo	69	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-4	1	13.5	14.9	-1.47	15.7	13.1	2.58
Avery Bradley	69	71	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.14	-10	3	-13	12.9	16.2	-3.29	15.1	14.3	0.85
Jared Sullinger	67	68	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.36	-12	5	-17	13.9	14.1	-0.21	14.9	14.9	0.01
Jeff Green	51	52	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.37	-17	10	-27	14.8	13.0	1.76	15.4	14.3	1.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.79,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.59,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.77,0.59,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 90, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.72,0.61,0.67,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.62,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.72,0.84,0.58,0	90.1%
IND 100, WAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.79,0.69,0.69,0	89.8%
WAS 104, BOS 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.63,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.61,0.38,0.71,0.85,0.58,0	89.3%