NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	108		Excitement	7.2 [406]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +16.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	116		Comeback	3.4 [726]		LVP	Dwight Howard (HOU): -15.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	7	71%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	15	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Josh Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	9	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.04	0.04	22	54%	0.07	3	-0.09	17	88%	0.06
Marcus Thornton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	12	35%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	12	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	6	30%	-0.12	2	-0.03	15	27%	-0.17

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.07	0.04	18	73%	0.29	4	-0.13	9	100%	0.11
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.01	16	61%	0.21	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.05	0.02	9	80%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	27%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	21	50%	0.03	8	-0.18	10	70%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.7	35.5	15.5	31.3	2.5	34.5	144.6
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +55.4%

OKC +15.0%

OKC +3.1%

HOU -20.3%

HOU -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	14.3	11.8	14.9	98.2	104.5	105.1
season	14.0	14.4		105.9	111.5
opponent	15.1	15.1		104.4	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.8	12.1	16.6	15.1	14.3
OKC	11.9	11.5	11.1	12.6	11.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Thornton	22	20	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.05	4	-12	16	13.1	14.6	-1.50	14.5	11.2	3.37
Clint Capela	51	50	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.29	7	-15	22	14.7	13.9	0.77	12.5	11.2	1.23
Josh Smith	35	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-10	12	14.0	14.4	-0.38	12.5	11.4	1.11
Dwight Howard	49	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	-1	-6	13.8	14.7	-0.93	11.5	12.0	-0.58
Patrick Beverley	63	65	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-3	-2	15.9	12.2	3.67	11.2	12.6	-1.41
Corey Brewer	69	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-1	-6	13.8	15.1	-1.36	12.7	10.3	2.41
Ty Lawson	43	42	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.18	-7	-1	-6	12.3	15.6	-3.23	12.7	11.2	1.50
Terrence Jones	32	32	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	5	-18	14.7	14.1	0.60	10.5	12.3	-1.80
James Harden	91	94	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	14.5	13.1	1.43	11.1	15.3	-4.15
Trevor Ariza	95	97	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.23	-8	0	-8	14.5	12.7	1.88	11.1	16.3	-5.15

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Singler	65	62	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	6	-4	11.5	12.1	-0.59	13.5	15.3	-1.81
Enes Kanter	58	59	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.28	6	2	4	12.3	11.2	1.03	14.3	14.3	-0.08
Kevin Durant	93	92	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.14	10	-2	12	10.9	16.1	-5.16	14.8	11.8	3.00
Russell Westbrook	87	87	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	2	4	11.2	14.0	-2.83	14.5	13.5	1.03
Dion Waiters	72	73	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	2	4	11.8	11.7	0.18	14.8	13.2	1.58
D.J. Augustin	43	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.07	7	1	6	12.2	11.5	0.69	13.6	14.7	-1.13
Serge Ibaka	56	56	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	4	0	12.9	10.7	2.17	14.7	13.8	0.94
Anthony Morrow	23	23	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.18	-3	11	-14	15.0	10.9	4.11	12.7	14.7	-2.02
Steven Adams	58	56	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	6	-4	11.1	12.5	-1.42	14.1	14.5	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.98,1,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 93, WAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	94.1%
NJN 93, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.98,0.97,0.98,1	93.9%
POR 90, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%