NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	88		Excitement	9.4 [111]		MVP	Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC): +20.0%
Sacramento Kings	91		Comeback	1.2 [791]		LVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): -43.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.06	-0.03	11	50%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.08	0.00	11	41%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,0.02	-0.14	0.14	-0.01	14	40%	0.22	6	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	8	45%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kent Bazemore	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	9	58%	0.07	3	-0.13	1	0%	-0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.11	0.01	6	57%	-0.05	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	8	25%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.43	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.43	-0.06	-0.35	0.02	12	54%	-0.14	5	-0.30	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.12	-0.01	8	67%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	10	54%	0.12	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	14	44%	-0.03	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.2,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	25	44%	0.11	6	-0.22	4	75%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	7	22%	-0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Rajon Rondo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.15	-0.15	-0.18	0.01	-0.02	16	34%	0.04	6	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.7	28.3	15.4	27.5	2.5	38.2	136.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -14.4%

SAC +24.1%

SAC +24.8%

SAC +16.4%

ATL -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAC	NBA	ATL	SAC	NBA
this game	12.8	16.4	14.9	89.8	91.9	105.1
season	14.2	13.9		104.1	104.8
opponent	14.6	15.1		107.1	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.7	12.0	12.9	11.8	12.8
SAC	16.6	16.1	16.4	16.5	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Scott	28	28	0.44	-0.94	1.37	-0.00	15	-18	33	12.4	13.0	-0.61	19.4	15.2	4.13
Tim Hardaway Jr.	29	30	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.16	17	-20	37	12.8	12.8	0.00	19.1	15.2	3.93
Dennis Schroder	48	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.45	10	-13	23	13.0	12.7	0.30	18.3	14.5	3.77
Tiago Splitter	32	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.03	-6	3	-9	13.3	12.6	0.77	15.2	16.9	-1.67
Al Horford	67	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-4	5	12.7	13.1	-0.35	17.3	14.4	2.86
Kyle Korver	61	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	9	-21	12.8	12.8	-0.02	14.6	19.5	-4.89
Jeff Teague	43	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	11	-25	13.0	12.7	0.31	14.9	17.6	-2.67
Kent Bazemore	58	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	6	-15	12.3	13.5	-1.22	15.3	18.1	-2.86
Thabo Sefolosha	55	52	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	-2	1	13.1	12.5	0.60	17.7	14.9	2.86
Paul Millsap	69	71	-0.92	0.42	-1.33	-0.45	-16	13	-29	12.9	12.7	0.15	14.9	20.2	-5.38

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben McLemore	74	74	0.85	-0.35	1.19	0.38	16	-13	29	14.6	21.7	-7.13	12.8	12.8	-0.01
Rajon Rondo	79	79	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.35	13	-10	23	15.0	21.9	-6.96	12.9	12.6	0.31
DeMarcus Cousins	81	82	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.35	10	-7	17	15.2	21.7	-6.44	13.1	11.4	1.66
Omri Casspi	79	79	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	3	-3	15.9	18.2	-2.26	12.8	12.9	-0.08
Willie Cauley-Stein	64	61	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.34	1	2	-1	15.8	17.5	-1.64	13.3	12.0	1.28
Marco Belinelli	35	35	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	6	-9	20.2	14.3	5.84	13.1	12.7	0.40
Kosta Koufos	29	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	1	1	20.0	14.9	5.15	12.4	13.0	-0.53
James Anderson	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	3	-3	0.0	16.6	-16.56	13.0	12.8	0.18
Quincy Acy	23	23	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	13	-23	18.3	15.8	2.43	11.7	13.2	-1.48
Darren Collison	30	29	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.02	-14	17	-31	21.3	14.2	7.09	11.9	13.2	-1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.59,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.73,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.76,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.66,0.75,0.63,0.71,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, UTA 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.74,0.71,0.63,0.77,0.59,0.47,0.72,0.75,0.54,0.84,0.72,1	91.8%
HOU 109, CLE 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.44,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.84,0.85,0.58,1	91.7%
DEN 94, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.92,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.54,0.67,0.8,0.89,0.78,0.73,1	91.6%