NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	7.0 [440]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +31.8%
Orlando Magic	101		Comeback	8.7 [66]		LVP	Luol Deng (MIA): -18.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.13,0.21,0.27,0.32	0.14	0.21	0.03	12	71%	0.34	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.05
Gerald Green	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.10	0.18	-0.01	10	68%	0.29	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.14	0.09	0.00	16	71%	0.26	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.00	5	54%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Goran Dragic	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	16	65%	0.21	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Luol Deng	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	10	35%	-0.08	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.2,0.18	0.18	0.03	0.14	-0.01	13	64%	0.25	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.07	-0.02	22	49%	0.14	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.03
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	0.00	7	65%	0.10	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.05
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.02	8	44%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Andrew Nicholson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.02	11	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	28.2	14.8	26.7	1.8	31.0	128.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +11.5%

MIA +34.5%

MIA +10.2%

ORL -1.4%

ORL -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.9	15.7	14.9	121.3	114.8	105.1
season	15.5	14.6		104.5	103.6
opponent	14.9	15.1		105.2	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	16.4	17.3	17.6	16.9
ORL	15.8	16.3	14.7	15.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	68	68	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.28	15	-8	23	17.5	14.9	2.63	15.2	17.2	-2.04
Chris Bosh	67	64	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	16.6	17.8	-1.21	15.6	15.9	-0.28
Gerald Green	53	51	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	0	7	17.0	16.7	0.33	16.6	14.4	2.18
Dwyane Wade	57	58	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.20	7	0	7	16.8	17.0	-0.21	14.5	18.0	-3.53
Beno Udrih	23	21	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.12	8	-1	9	16.7	16.9	-0.17	18.2	14.9	3.37
Goran Dragic	66	67	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	8	-9	16.9	16.7	0.17	14.9	18.2	-3.37
Luol Deng	57	57	0.00	0.49	-0.49	0.15	-5	12	-17	17.0	16.7	0.33	14.9	17.1	-2.20
Amar'e Stoudemire	18	17	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	8	-9	14.6	17.4	-2.83	17.8	15.2	2.60
Justise Winslow	36	37	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	9	-11	17.1	16.7	0.41	17.5	14.3	3.18

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Hezonja	35	35	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-10	13	17.2	14.6	2.59	16.5	17.1	-0.58
Andrew Nicholson	13	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-5	3	17.6	15.3	2.28	16.3	17.0	-0.69
Victor Oladipo	31	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-5	3	17.7	14.5	3.20	16.7	16.9	-0.19
Jason Smith	20	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.02	-7	0	-7	18.3	14.9	3.47	17.4	16.7	0.75
Tobias Harris	73	74	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-7	7	15.2	17.9	-2.73	16.5	18.7	-2.17
Aaron Gordon	20	20	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-2	-3	16.9	15.3	1.59	17.7	16.6	1.08
Evan Fournier	67	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-5	3	15.2	17.1	-1.93	16.9	16.9	-0.05
Nikola Vucevic	68	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-7	7	14.9	18.3	-3.47	16.7	17.4	-0.75
Channing Frye	50	50	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.32	-7	0	-7	14.5	17.2	-2.71	17.4	16.2	1.13
Elfrid Payton	63	64	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.36	-13	6	-19	15.0	17.5	-2.53	17.0	16.4	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.73,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.66,0.72,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.46,0.31,0.29,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 107, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.04,0.05,0	92.8%
MIN 94, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.02,0	92.1%
NYK 105, SAS 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.26,0.05,0.06,0.02,0	92.0%