NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	84		Excitement	6.7 [482]		MVP	Jason Terry (HOU): +15.8%
Houston Rockets	88		Comeback	2.5 [186]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -20.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	17	53%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	10	54%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Patty Mills	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.04	0.03	-0.07	-0.01	19	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	11	45%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	7	56%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Danny Green	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.07	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	0.01	3	109%	0.19	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Terrence Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	11	58%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.06	0.01	6	55%	0.10	0	0.00	8	37%	-0.04
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	4	70%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.15,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.04	-0.03	21	43%	0.07	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.02
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	8	19%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	6	37%	-0.03	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.05
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.04	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.8	30.0	15.6	28.4	1.8	39.5	141.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +53.8%

HOU +1.2%

SAS -9.9%

HOU +3.4%

HOU +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	16.7	13.6	14.9	88.4	92.6	105.1
season	15.7	14.0		109.0	105.9
opponent	15.1	14.7		106.9	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.5	15.7	16.7	17.1	16.7
HOU	16.0	14.9	12.8	11.0	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	40	40	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.03	-3	-1	-2	15.4	17.7	-2.27	13.7	13.5	0.30
Kawhi Leonard	74	74	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.29	5	-9	14	17.3	14.9	2.35	14.0	12.0	2.03
Danny Green	43	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	1	-6	17.5	16.1	1.33	13.8	13.4	0.33
Tim Duncan	61	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-6	8	17.4	15.5	1.93	13.9	13.1	0.78
David West	27	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	1	-6	15.3	17.3	-2.06	13.3	13.7	-0.45
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-5	6	17.3	15.3	2.06	13.7	13.3	0.45
Boris Diaw	34	35	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	2	-8	15.5	17.4	-1.93	13.1	13.9	-0.78
Manu Ginobili	52	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.35	1	-5	6	16.1	17.5	-1.33	13.4	13.8	-0.33
Jonathon Simmons	21	21	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.09	-9	5	-14	14.9	17.3	-2.35	12.0	14.0	-2.03
Tony Parker	55	55	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.35	-1	-3	2	17.7	15.4	2.27	13.5	13.7	-0.30

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	72	71	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.50	5	-1	6	13.2	14.8	-1.59	17.1	15.7	1.32
Jason Terry	37	39	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.37	9	-5	14	11.6	14.8	-3.21	16.2	17.1	-0.86
Corey Brewer	43	42	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	-5	14	12.9	14.2	-1.31	15.7	17.6	-1.88
Terrence Jones	44	43	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.13	4	0	4	14.4	12.8	1.59	16.0	17.3	-1.30
Clint Capela	62	64	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	2	0	13.0	14.8	-1.81	17.6	15.0	2.63
Ty Lawson	39	37	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.09	3	1	2	14.1	13.2	0.93	15.3	17.7	-2.40
James Harden	72	72	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.28	-4	8	-12	14.0	12.3	1.68	17.3	15.0	2.35
Trevor Ariza	52	53	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.25	-5	9	-14	14.2	12.9	1.31	17.6	15.7	1.88
Patrick Beverley	42	42	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	4	-4	14.1	13.2	0.93	17.5	16.1	1.41
Donatas Motiejunas	12	12	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	7	-10	16.0	13.2	2.77	12.7	17.3	-4.56

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.62,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.9,0.97,0.95,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 77, CHA 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.4%
CHH 91, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.85,0.95,1,0.99,1	92.4%
CLE 99, WAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.95,0.89,0.89,0.82,1	92.3%