NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	77		Excitement	6.3 [584]		MVP	Marco Belinelli (CHA): +22.0%
Charlotte Hornets	87		Comeback	1.6 [861]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -15.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.17	0.05	0.03	14	74%	0.22	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	9	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrun Hilliard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	10	35%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	11	27%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	7	14%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	19	37%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.15	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	12	42%	-0.07	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.06	0.14	-0.02	10	59%	0.22	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	10	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	10	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	22	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	5	20%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Cody Zeller	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	9	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.04
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	7	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.5	24.3	14.4	24.4	2.4	32.3	122.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +23.5%

CHA +9.4%

DET -3.5%

CHA +20.1%

CHA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHA	NBA	DET	CHA	NBA
this game	15.2	13.9	14.8	77.8	87.9	107.7
season	15.0	15.1		105.0	107.9
opponent	14.8	15.1		107.9	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.3	17.4	15.5	15.1	15.2
CHA	13.4	13.3	14.5	14.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	52	52	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.01	2	-12	14	15.9	14.5	1.45	13.4	14.3	-0.88
Andre Drummond	69	69	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.13	4	-14	18	15.4	14.7	0.72	14.1	13.3	0.75
Tobias Harris	78	79	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.13	-1	-9	8	15.0	16.0	-0.97	14.1	12.9	1.20
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	78	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.14	-3	-7	4	14.8	16.9	-2.06	13.8	14.1	-0.30
Darrun Hilliard	21	22	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	-3	-4	16.9	14.8	2.06	14.1	13.8	0.30
Marcus Morris	71	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	1	-12	15.5	14.6	0.87	14.0	13.4	0.63
Jon Leuer	49	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.21	-8	-2	-6	15.2	15.3	-0.06	13.2	14.5	-1.30
Aron Baynes	30	30	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	4	-18	14.7	15.4	-0.72	13.3	14.1	-0.75
Ish Smith	47	47	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.19	-12	2	-14	14.5	15.9	-1.45	14.3	13.4	0.88

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	58	59	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.21	12	-2	14	14.1	13.6	0.51	14.2	16.7	-2.50
Frank Kaminsky	45	46	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.18	8	2	6	13.7	14.0	-0.23	14.7	15.7	-1.08
Roy Hibbert	33	34	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	4	2	14.1	13.8	0.30	14.3	15.7	-1.38
Jeremy Lamb	24	25	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	6	-2	13.7	13.9	-0.14	16.6	14.8	1.88
Kemba Walker	69	69	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	2	6	13.7	14.3	-0.63	15.6	14.4	1.19
Ramon Sessions	30	30	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	8	-6	14.3	13.7	0.63	14.4	15.6	-1.19
Nicolas Batum	75	74	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	4	2	13.9	13.7	0.14	14.8	16.6	-1.88
Cody Zeller	66	65	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	6	-2	13.8	14.1	-0.30	15.7	14.3	1.38
Marvin Williams	54	53	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	8	-6	14.0	13.7	0.23	15.7	14.7	1.08
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	41	40	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	12	-14	13.6	14.1	-0.51	16.7	14.2	2.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.8,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 114, SAC 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.93,0.91,0.85,1	93.8%
NOH 81, SAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.91,0.97,0.89,0.94,0.93,1,1,1,1	93.7%
MIL 90, CHH 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	93.6%