NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	98		Excitement	8.5 [203]		MVP	Avery Bradley (BOS): +34.2%
Charlotte Hornets	93		Comeback	2.3 [393]		LVP	Marvin Williams (CHA): -19.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Bradley	0.34	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.27,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.34	0.14	0.19	-0.01	17	66%	0.34	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	16	60%	0.22	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.06
Jae Crowder	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	15	48%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Evan Turner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	10	48%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	12	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
James Young	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	13	31%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.10	0.01	10	58%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.02	-0.04	9	67%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.02	-0.00	6	83%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
PJ Hairston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.03,0.08,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	11	39%	0.04	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	21	49%	-0.02	4	-0.15	1	100%	0.01
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,0.09,-0.06,-0.18,-0.17	-0.17	0.00	-0.17	0.00	15	47%	-0.08	1	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Marvin Williams	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	8	12%	-0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	1.8	25.3	15.4	23.6	2.4	35.2	125.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +23.5%

BOS +11.9%

CHA -11.5%

BOS +23.7%

BOS +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHA	NBA	BOS	CHA	NBA
this game	14.7	15.1	14.9	102.1	95.9	105.1
season	13.9	15.1		104.5	105.5
opponent	14.8	15.0		103.6	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.1	13.3	14.7	13.9	14.7
CHA	14.2	14.9	16.6	14.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	58	59	0.99	-0.49	1.47	0.37	21	-16	37	14.5	15.0	-0.44	16.2	13.5	2.69
Jae Crowder	66	65	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.32	20	-15	35	13.8	16.6	-2.75	15.6	14.2	1.41
Isaiah Thomas	80	81	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.32	16	-11	27	13.8	19.1	-5.22	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Avery Bradley	68	69	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.38	13	-8	21	14.9	14.2	0.75	15.5	14.2	1.29
Jared Sullinger	36	36	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.00	6	-1	7	13.7	15.3	-1.53	15.0	15.2	-0.17
Jonas Jerebko	9	9	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	8	-11	19.7	14.2	5.47	14.4	15.2	-0.76
Evan Turner	54	56	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.35	-15	20	-35	15.1	14.3	0.79	15.1	15.2	-0.11
Kelly Olynyk	46	47	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	8	-11	16.3	13.3	2.98	13.6	16.5	-2.90
James Young	27	27	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.03	-12	17	-29	14.6	14.8	-0.21	15.1	15.1	0.02
David Lee	36	36	-0.54	1.04	-1.58	-0.01	-18	23	-41	15.4	14.3	1.13	14.2	15.7	-1.49

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Hawes	41	41	0.59	-1.09	1.68	0.06	18	-23	41	14.9	15.3	-0.44	15.1	14.4	0.68
Jeremy Lamb	31	31	0.51	-1.01	1.52	0.04	16	-21	37	14.3	15.5	-1.19	15.0	14.6	0.38
Frank Kaminsky	45	44	0.44	-0.94	1.37	0.03	14	-19	33	14.7	15.5	-0.79	15.8	13.7	2.09
Jeremy Lin	66	64	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.36	10	-15	25	14.8	15.8	-1.04	14.4	15.3	-0.91
PJ Hairston	43	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	7	-19	16.0	14.4	1.64	14.8	14.7	0.11
Nicolas Batum	76	77	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.36	-11	6	-17	15.1	15.1	0.05	14.7	14.9	-0.23
Marvin Williams	59	59	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.38	-16	11	-27	15.3	14.9	0.31	14.0	15.8	-1.84
Kemba Walker	68	66	-1.00	0.50	-1.50	-0.38	-21	16	-37	15.4	14.5	0.93	14.8	14.6	0.21
Cody Zeller	56	55	-1.09	0.59	-1.68	-0.41	-23	18	-41	15.3	14.9	0.44	14.4	15.1	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.23,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.22,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 80, CHI 76	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.47,0.64,0.54,0.72,0.81,0.66,0.33,0.26,0	90.8%
IND 81, CLE 74	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.3,0.4,0.54,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.53,0.64,0.46,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.1,0	90.3%
NOH 83, BOS 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.48,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.7,0.81,0.72,0.69,0.37,0.32,0.09,0	90.2%