NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	105		Excitement	4.1 [1014]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): +12.7%
Detroit Pistons	116		Comeback	1.3 [910]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): -10.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.02	6	60%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.01	0.03	8	69%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.05	0.09	15	62%	0.09	5	-0.07	17	88%	0.02
Montrezl Harrell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
KJ McDaniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.08	13	60%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	11	46%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Patrick Beverley	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	12	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	9	11%	-0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	0.03	0.07	18	70%	0.14	2	-0.01	8	75%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	15	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	18	22%	-0.06
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	0.00	0.06	11	73%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	61%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	11	54%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	11	48%	0.02	3	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	8	25%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	30.3	15.8	28.4	1.5	40.5	142.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +48.3%

HOU -15.1%

DET +5.1%

DET +13.6%

HOU -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DET	NBA	HOU	DET	NBA
this game	14.3	15.0	14.9	106.1	118.4	105.1
season	14.0	15.0		105.9	104.9
opponent	15.1	15.1		105.0	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.0	14.2	14.2	13.6	14.3
DET	12.7	17.2	14.0	16.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
KJ McDaniels	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-9	7	6.3	14.5	-8.19	13.5	15.0	-1.50
Montrezl Harrell	19	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-15	19	13.7	14.4	-0.73	12.8	15.4	-2.60
Dwight Howard	63	65	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.35	10	-21	31	13.5	15.7	-2.19	15.4	14.1	1.37
Corey Brewer	37	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	-3	-5	13.1	15.0	-1.95	15.1	14.9	0.18
Ty Lawson	42	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-4	-3	14.7	14.0	0.73	12.4	16.8	-4.35
Marcus Thornton	43	43	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-8	5	14.3	14.2	0.09	16.0	14.1	1.88
Patrick Beverley	53	54	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.21	-2	-9	7	14.6	13.8	0.79	16.9	12.6	4.32
James Harden	86	87	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.18	-4	-7	3	14.5	13.0	1.47	14.8	16.4	-1.57
Terrence Jones	32	30	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.15	-18	7	-25	14.9	14.0	0.98	13.9	15.5	-1.59
Trevor Ariza	74	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-1	-9	14.0	15.1	-1.08	14.9	15.2	-0.26
Clint Capela	43	45	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.02	-15	4	-19	16.0	13.0	3.01	15.2	14.7	0.51

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Johnson	60	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.01	14	-3	17	15.2	14.6	0.55	14.0	14.6	-0.60
Marcus Morris	70	68	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	7	-3	15.2	14.4	0.86	14.5	13.8	0.68
Reggie Jackson	76	76	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.02	11	0	11	14.4	16.8	-2.33	14.8	12.5	2.28
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	89	90	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	7	-3	14.9	15.4	-0.52	14.3	14.0	0.30
Andre Drummond	56	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.08	13	-2	15	15.9	13.7	2.20	14.0	14.6	-0.60
Anthony Tolliver	22	24	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.04	9	2	7	16.1	14.6	1.50	14.1	14.3	-0.20
Aron Baynes	41	41	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	15	-19	14.0	15.7	-1.71	14.7	13.9	0.78
Ersan Ilyasova	52	51	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.12	2	9	-7	13.8	16.3	-2.47	14.7	13.9	0.81
Steve Blake	24	26	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	9	-7	16.5	14.5	2.03	11.8	15.2	-3.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.43,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.93,1,1,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 100, DAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.88,0.83,0.95,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.96,1	95.3%
WAS 100, DAL 119	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.87,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.95,0.9,0.83,0.8,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
CHI 94, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.83,0.91,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1	94.8%