NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	100		Excitement	4.1 [985]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +17.0%
Dallas Mavericks	108		Comeback	1.3 [1104]		LVP	David West (NOH): -17.1%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.12,0.1	0.18	-0.00	0.07	21	78%	0.23	5	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01
Julian Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	16	47%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.03	0.06	15	52%	-0.01	2	-0.06	10	80%	-0.00
David West	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.04	15	29%	-0.12	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.17	0.17	0.17	0.04	0.05	25	61%	0.17	0	0.00	9	89%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.01	6	71%	0.08	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	10	55%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	53%	0.04	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	0.03	18	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	-0.06	12	54%	0.02	7	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.6	29.1	19.7	30.8	2.8	37.3	145.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +27.4%

DAL +4.5%

NOH -0.1%

DAL +17.0%

DAL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DAL	NBA	NOH	DAL	NBA
this game	16.6	13.9	15.3	106.4	113.7	106.0
season	15.5	15.2		106.0	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.2		104.6	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.7	20.8	14.3	15.5	16.6
DAL	11.4	16.2	12.9	15.8	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	40	40	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-10	12	16.4	16.7	-0.30	12.3	15.1	-2.75
Julian Wright	15	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.04	-8	0	-8	21.4	15.7	5.74	16.1	13.5	2.63
James Posey	25	25	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-5	2	13.8	17.6	-3.78	14.9	13.6	1.31
David West	84	86	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-13	18	16.5	17.3	-0.81	14.3	10.7	3.59
Peja Stojakovic	79	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-8	8	15.7	21.4	-5.74	13.5	16.1	-2.63
Emeka Okafor	60	59	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	2	-12	16.5	16.7	-0.16	12.2	16.7	-4.47
Marcus Thornton	62	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.40	1	-9	10	16.0	17.7	-1.69	15.1	11.7	3.41
Darren Collison	86	87	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.01	-19	11	-30	17.1	11.2	5.82	13.8	15.0	-1.18

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	77	76	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.10	13	-5	18	14.2	12.7	1.47	16.6	16.6	0.02
Jason Terry	64	63	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	0	8	14.9	11.9	2.99	16.7	16.3	0.38
Dirk Nowitzki	78	78	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	3	2	13.5	15.7	-2.18	16.3	17.8	-1.49
Brendan Haywood	67	68	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	0	8	13.5	14.9	-1.39	15.5	19.3	-3.73
Jason Kidd	63	63	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	-1	10	13.4	14.9	-1.45	15.5	18.8	-3.28
Shawn Marion	54	52	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	2	4	13.1	15.0	-1.86	17.0	16.1	0.87
Jose Juan Barea	32	31	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	9	-10	14.9	13.4	1.45	18.8	15.5	3.28
Eduardo Najera	26	25	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	6	-4	15.1	13.5	1.60	19.6	15.5	4.18
DeShawn Stevenson	14	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.25	-10	18	-28	13.0	14.1	-1.07	15.5	16.8	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.88,0.83,0.95,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.9,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 107, SAS 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,1,1,1	95.7%
PHI 118, CLE 125	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.98,1,1,1	95.4%
HOU 105, DET 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.43,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.84,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.94,0.93,1,1,0.99,1,1	95.3%