NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	9.0 [151]		MVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): +50.3%
Denver Nuggets	103		Comeback	5.1 [278]		LVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): -34.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.03,0.24,0.24	0.15	0.11	0.02	10	85%	0.39	3	-0.15	6	83%	0.01
Johnny O'Bryant	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.17	0.00	7	65%	0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.12	-0.04	0.16	0.00	12	50%	0.22	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.00	13	69%	0.13	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Ennis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.02	4	87%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rashad Vaughn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.12	-0.02	14	54%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.35	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.35	-0.01	-0.34	-0.00	13	50%	-0.31	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.5	0.50	0.10	0.41	0.01	9	79%	0.62	2	-0.12	6	50%	-0.06
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,0.08	0.08	-0.05	0.14	0.00	16	40%	0.11	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Kostas Papanikolaou	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	2	75%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	53%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.08	-0.19	-0.01	17	61%	0.03	3	-0.14	7	100%	0.04
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.05	-0.15	0.01	8	67%	0.01	1	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.1	1.8	25.2	15.5	25.2	2.4	37.3	128.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +7.8%

DEN +22.6%

DEN +20.6%

DEN +1.3%

MIL -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DEN	NBA	MIL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.7	15.4	14.9	113.3	115.7	105.1
season	14.8	14.9		102.8	104.3
opponent	14.9	15.3		107.8	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.5	16.2	17.9	14.6	16.7
DEN	15.0	15.1	15.5	16.1	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny O'Bryant	60	61	0.47	-0.97	1.44	-0.09	19	-20	39	17.0	16.1	0.98	16.1	13.9	2.22
Rashad Vaughn	20	19	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	3	-7	15.8	17.0	-1.12	15.6	15.4	0.16
Greg Monroe	59	60	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.34	6	-7	13	17.3	15.6	1.69	15.4	15.6	-0.20
Tyler Ennis	27	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.00	-6	5	-11	18.7	15.9	2.88	15.8	15.3	0.49
Khris Middleton	78	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.46	5	-6	11	16.9	15.6	1.31	15.4	15.6	-0.21
Greivis Vasquez	63	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.47	5	-6	11	15.9	18.7	-2.88	15.3	15.8	-0.49
John Henson	31	29	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	6	-13	15.6	17.3	-1.69	15.6	15.4	0.20
Jerryd Bayless	55	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-4	7	15.8	18.2	-2.37	15.3	15.7	-0.46
Giannis Antetokounmpo	57	56	-1.15	0.65	-1.80	-0.39	-26	25	-51	17.3	15.7	1.67	14.9	16.5	-1.60

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	33	34	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.61	-4	5	-9	15.9	15.2	0.78	15.5	17.5	-1.96
Gary Harris	54	53	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.31	4	-3	7	14.3	17.3	-2.98	17.5	15.6	1.82
Darrell Arthur	30	33	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.16	8	-7	15	15.9	15.2	0.73	17.2	16.4	0.77
Nikola Jokic	25	27	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	-8	17	16.2	15.2	0.99	17.0	16.6	0.34
Emmanuel Mudiay	66	65	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	-1	3	14.6	17.9	-3.26	16.9	16.2	0.78
Kostas Papanikolaou	19	21	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.01	9	-8	17	14.7	15.6	-0.91	17.2	16.6	0.61
Danilo Gallinari	70	69	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.48	-8	9	-17	15.6	14.7	0.91	16.6	17.2	-0.61
Kenneth Faried	64	63	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	6	-11	15.2	16.2	-0.99	16.6	17.0	-0.34
Randy Foye	30	32	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	5	-9	18.1	14.1	4.00	15.3	17.5	-2.24
JJ Hickson	54	53	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.06	-6	7	-13	15.6	15.2	0.41	17.1	16.2	0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.83,0.17,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 85, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.73,1	89.5%
CHA 95, IND 102	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.33,0.2,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.78,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.93,0.89,0.84,0.72,1	88.9%
DAL 100, SAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.39,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.86,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.58,1	88.7%