NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	94		Excitement	8.9 [159]		MVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): +36.5%
Charlotte Hornets	92		Comeback	4.8 [279]		LVP	Spencer Hawes (CHA): -17.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.37	0.10	0.28	0.01	13	62%	0.37	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0.27	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.26,0.27	0.13	0.16	0.02	12	67%	0.27	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Jeff Teague	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.02	16	50%	0.11	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.09
Tiago Splitter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Scott	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	14	53%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Dennis Schroder	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Patterson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	9	33%	-0.07	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.15	0.03	10	75%	0.27	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.22,0.32,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.13	0.01	9	65%	0.21	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.08
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	11	41%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	12	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Hairston	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	6	47%	0.03	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	9	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1	-0.10	0.02	-0.11	0.01	14	53%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.06	-0.00	8	12%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.4	24.6	15.7	25.2	2.4	36.5	128.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +38.3%

ATL +6.0%

ATL +15.1%

CHA -13.0%

ATL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHA	NBA	ATL	CHA	NBA
this game	14.8	15.1	14.9	97.9	94.8	105.1
season	14.2	15.1		104.1	105.5
opponent	14.8	15.1		103.6	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.3	16.9	14.6	13.4	14.8
CHA	17.1	14.4	12.6	16.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kent Bazemore	56	56	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.63	-6	8	-14	14.9	14.6	0.23	15.1	15.0	0.15
Kyle Korver	60	64	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.51	-2	4	-6	15.0	14.4	0.63	15.2	14.7	0.51
Jeff Teague	65	63	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.46	-3	5	-8	14.9	14.5	0.49	15.8	13.7	2.04
Paul Millsap	68	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.43	-3	5	-8	15.0	14.2	0.85	15.2	14.6	0.66
Tiago Splitter	33	35	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	-9	20	15.2	14.6	0.61	15.3	14.9	0.44
Al Horford	71	71	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.36	-3	5	-8	14.4	15.8	-1.38	15.3	14.4	0.93
Mike Scott	28	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	-3	8	14.2	15.0	-0.85	14.6	15.2	-0.66
Dennis Schroder	42	42	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.11	8	-6	14	14.9	14.7	0.13	15.0	15.1	-0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	38	38	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	2	-2	14.3	15.1	-0.81	13.4	16.1	-2.65
Lamar Patterson	19	19	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.13	3	-1	4	14.7	14.8	-0.12	13.7	15.4	-1.65

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Hairston	48	47	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.07	4	-6	10	14.3	15.8	-1.44	15.1	14.4	0.72
Frank Kaminsky	10	10	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-4	6	16.5	14.9	1.60	18.7	14.3	4.37
Jeremy Lamb	37	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	3	-8	15.2	15.0	0.16	14.2	15.2	-0.94
Spencer Hawes	37	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	0	-2	14.8	15.2	-0.49	14.2	15.2	-0.94
Al Jefferson	59	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-4	6	15.5	14.4	1.05	15.2	14.2	0.94
Marvin Williams	66	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.44	4	-6	10	15.0	15.2	-0.19	14.7	15.0	-0.36
Nicolas Batum	74	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.43	3	-5	8	14.9	15.5	-0.55	14.9	14.3	0.62
Cody Zeller	47	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.04	-15	13	-28	15.3	14.8	0.54	14.1	15.4	-1.26
Jeremy Lin	42	43	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.42	-2	0	-2	15.3	14.9	0.39	14.7	14.8	-0.11
Kemba Walker	65	62	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.47	-1	-1	0	15.0	15.2	-0.23	14.7	15.0	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.21,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.47,0.45,0.24,0.11,0.43,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 118, LAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.56,0.63,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.7,0.54,0.54,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.37,0	90.8%
IND 92, PHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.04,0	90.1%
UTA 101, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.49,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.82,0.8,0.7,0.79,0.62,0.7,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.33,0.2,0.05,0.03,0.16,0	90.0%